Spartak Moscow 3-0 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Spartak Moscow (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Spartak Moscow face Krylia Sovetov.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Krylia Sovetov travel to Lukoil Arena to take on Spartak Moscow. The game is scheduled for Monday 5 August 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spartak Moscow stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Spartak Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spartak Moscow at Lukoil Arena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lukoil Arena.
Krylia Sovetov — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Krylia Sovetov away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Spartak Moscow are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Spartak Moscow, 2 for Krylia Sovetov and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 3–0 with Spartak Moscow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Spartak Moscow in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 44% versus Krylia Sovetov 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 47% | Krylia Sovetov 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.58 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.078 / defence 0.895 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.943 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.488. Data: 32 Spartak Moscow games / 32 Krylia Sovetov games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 42% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 28%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Krylia Sovetov 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Spartak Moscow 40% | Krylia Sovetov 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Lukoil Arena • Kick-off: Monday 5 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 42% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.58 / Krylia Sovetov 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.078 / def 0.895 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.943 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.488 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Krylia Sovetov xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 5 August 2024 at Lukoil Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Spartak Moscow 3 - 0 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Lukoil Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 42% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (6 meetings): Spartak Moscow 4W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 2W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Spartak Moscow's attack at 1.08x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.36
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.83
1.26
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
6%
17.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.26 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spartak Moscow come into this having played 32 games, going 15W 8D 9L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.28 PPG from 32 outings (11W 8D 13L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spartak Moscow on 1.66 PPG, Krylia Sovetov on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Spartak Moscow's home form reads 10W 3D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — Spartak Moscow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 0.93 points per game from 15 outings (4W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.47 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov in 62%.
Defensively: Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Early Season
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 15W 8D 9L in their last 32 games (1.66 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 11W 8D 13L in their last 32 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 2.20 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Spartak Moscow or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Spartak Moscow
0
Draws
3
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 7, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 47%, Krylia Sovetov 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Spartak Moscow and 67% for Krylia Sovetov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Spartak Moscow's games and 67% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 67% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Spartak Moscow run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Krylia Sovetov 3-0 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.58 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.26 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Spartak Moscow beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Krylia Sovetov landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.08 / defence 0.90 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.94 / defence 1.11, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 42% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 28%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 47%, Krylia Sovetov 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.66 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.