Spartak Moscow 0-2 Fakel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spartak Moscow vs Fakel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Spartak Moscow welcome Fakel to Stadion Luzhniki. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 March 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow at Stadion Luzhniki this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Luzhniki. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Spartak Moscow are significantly better at Stadion Luzhniki than their overall form suggests.
Fakel — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fakel away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Spartak Moscow) versus 1.70 (Fakel). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Spartak Moscow, 1 for Fakel and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Fakel winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Spartak Moscow in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Fakel in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 59% versus Fakel 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 57% | Fakel 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.42 xG and Fakel 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.145 / defence 0.940 | Fakel attack 0.947 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 0.985. Data: 49 Spartak Moscow games / 49 Fakel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 48% | Draw 32% | Fakel 21%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Fakel 4.76. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Spartak Moscow 50% | Fakel 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Fakel | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Luzhniki • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 48% | Draw 32% | Fakel 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.42 / Fakel 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.145 / def 0.940 | Fakel attack 0.947 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.309 / away 0.985 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Fakel xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Fakel kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Fakel kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stadion Luzhniki.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
Spartak Moscow 0 - 2 Fakel.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Fakel being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Luzhniki.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Fakel part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Fakel is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 48% chance of winning, Fakel a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Fakel will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Fakel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Fakel?
Record (3 meetings): Spartak Moscow 2W | Draws 0 | Fakel 1W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Fakel in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Fakel (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spartak Moscow's attack at 1.15x the league average against Fakel's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fakel's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
48%
2.10
32%
3.17
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.30
0.88
Fakel xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
5%
19.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Fakel expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 0.88 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Spartak Moscow have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 24W 13D 12L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fakel's form line: 13W 18D 18L from 49 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Spartak Moscow are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fakel.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spartak Moscow have posted 2.17 PPG from 24 outings (15W 7D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Spartak Moscow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fakel have gone 5W 6D 13L from 24 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Fakel are on 1.06 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Fakel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Fakel in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 24W 13D 12L in their last 49 games (1.73 PPG), while Fakel have gone 13W 18D 18L in their last 49 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Fakel away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 2.17 PPG; Fakel away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Spartak Moscow or Fakel been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Fakel in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2022, when Spartak Moscow won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting Fakel specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Spartak Moscow
1
Draws
2
Fakel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Fakel?
From 6 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 3, Fakel have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Fakel last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Fakel 0-0 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Fakel?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 54%, Fakel 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Spartak Moscow) and 38% (Fakel).
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fakel in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Fakel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Fakel?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Spartak Moscow's recent matches and 46% of Fakel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Fakel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Spartak Moscow's recent games and 38% of Fakel's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spartak Moscow and Fakel tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fakel in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fakel cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Spartak Moscow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fakel beat Spartak Moscow 0-2 at Stadion Luzhniki, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.42 xG and Fakel 0.88 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Spartak Moscow fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Fakel outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.15 / defence 0.94 against Fakel attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 48% | Draw 32% | Fakel 21%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Fakel win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 57%, Fakel 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Fakel's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Fakel winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fakel (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.