FC Rostov 2-1 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Rostov face FC Krasnodar.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rostov Arena plays host to FC Rostov versus FC Krasnodar in Premier League (matchday 20). Kick-off: Friday 8 March 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC Rostov have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, FC Rostov have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — FC Rostov are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FC Krasnodar (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Krasnodar's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for FC Rostov, 1.80 for FC Krasnodar — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for FC Rostov, 3 for FC Krasnodar and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended FC Rostov 2–3 FC Krasnodar — a FC Krasnodar win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Rostov — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Krasnodar — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Rostov 65% and FC Krasnodar 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Rostov 63% | FC Krasnodar 57%). Note also that FC Krasnodar surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while FC Rostov recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.55 xG and FC Krasnodar 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 1.153 / defence 0.881 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.101 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 0.939. Data: built from FC Rostov's last 49 games and FC Krasnodar's last 49.
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 49% | Draw 32% | FC Krasnodar 19%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | FC Krasnodar 5.27. FC Rostov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Rostov as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Rostov if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Rostov 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Krasnodar 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, matchday 20 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Friday 8 March 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 49% | Draw 32% | FC Krasnodar 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG FC Rostov 1.55 / FC Krasnodar 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 1.153 / def 0.881 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.101 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.321 / away 0.939 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
0.91
FC Krasnodar xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar FAQs
What time does FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Friday 8 March 2024 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar?
FC Rostov 2 - 1 FC Krasnodar.
Where is FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar part of?
FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar is a Premier League fixture (matchday 20) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 49% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Rostov's attack rating (1.15) and FC Krasnodar's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (1.10x) against FC Rostov's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from FC Rostov's last 49 games and FC Krasnodar's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
49%
2.04
32%
3.12
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
2.46
0.91
FC Krasnodar xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
4%
24.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for FC Rostov and 0.91 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Rostov's recent record stands at 21W 14D 14L from 49 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
FC Krasnodar, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 10L across 49 games — 1.78 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for FC Rostov against 1.78 for FC Krasnodar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Rostov have managed 14W 6D 4L from their last 24 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — FC Rostov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Krasnodar's away record stands at 8W 9D 7L across their last 24 away games, a 1.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Krasnodar's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Rostov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Rostov are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.86 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; FC Krasnodar in 61%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
FC Rostov (Home) vs FC Krasnodar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Rostov
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar Form FAQs
What form are FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 21W 14D 14L in their last 49 games (1.57 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 24W 15D 10L in their last 49 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Rostov's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.38 PPG.
Have FC Rostov or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Rostov have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
FC Krasnodar have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Krasnodar won FC Krasnodar 3-0 FC Rostov on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Rostov have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Rostov
1
Draws
7
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Rostov have won 2, FC Krasnodar have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: FC Krasnodar 1-0 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Rostov 67%, FC Krasnodar 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for FC Rostov and 58% for FC Krasnodar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Rostov's games and 62% of FC Krasnodar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC Rostov's matches and 58% of FC Krasnodar's.
Do FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of FC Rostov's recent matches and 75% of FC Krasnodar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Rostov edge out FC Krasnodar 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat FC Krasnodar 2-1 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.55 xG and FC Krasnodar 0.91 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 1.15 / defence 0.88 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.10 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 49% | Draw 32% | FC Krasnodar 19%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 63%, FC Krasnodar 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Rostov 1.57 PPG, FC Krasnodar 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.