Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dynamo (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Krylia Sovetov face Dynamo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Krylia Sovetov host Dynamo at Samara Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Samara Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dynamo stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Dynamo's 2.40 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Krylia Sovetov's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Krylia Sovetov register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Dynamo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Dynamo have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 10 encounters against Krylia Sovetov's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Dynamo have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Dynamo in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 55% versus Dynamo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 48% | Dynamo 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.27 xG and Dynamo 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.939 / defence 1.235 | Dynamo attack 0.996 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.247. Data: 42 Krylia Sovetov games / 43 Dynamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 29% | Draw 30% | Dynamo 41%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Dynamo 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 80% | Dynamo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 29% | Draw 30% | Dynamo 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.27 / Dynamo 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.939 / def 1.235 | Dynamo attack 0.996 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Dynamo xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Samara Arena.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 29% chance of winning, Dynamo a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo?
Record (10 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 1W | Draws 2 | Dynamo 7W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Dynamo (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (0.94) and Dynamo's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
29%
3.41
30%
3.38
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.81
1.53
Dynamo xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
6%
15.80
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.53 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 42 games, going 11W 14D 17L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo sit at 1.71 PPG from 42 outings (21W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Dynamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 8W 8D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo have taken 1.52 points per game from 21 outings (9W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.69 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 11W 14D 17L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 21W 9D 12L in their last 42 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Dynamo away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.52 PPG; Dynamo away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Dynamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Dynamo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2026, when Dynamo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Dynamo specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
2
Draws
7
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Dynamo have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Dynamo 0-0 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 62%, Dynamo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Krylia Sovetov) and 52% (Dynamo).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Dynamo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 62% of Dynamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 52% of Dynamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dynamo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.