FC Krasnodar 1-0 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion FK Krasnodar plays host to FC Krasnodar versus CSKA Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 16:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Krasnodar have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar's home record at Stadion FK Krasnodar: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion FK Krasnodar. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — FC Krasnodar are significantly better at Stadion FK Krasnodar than their overall form suggests.
CSKA Moscow (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for FC Krasnodar, 1.70 for CSKA Moscow — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: FC Krasnodar 1W, CSKA Moscow 2W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with CSKA Moscow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
FC Krasnodar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Krasnodar 62% and CSKA Moscow 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 60% | CSKA Moscow 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.70 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.141 / defence 0.915 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.176 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.011. Data: 47 FC Krasnodar games / 47 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 50% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 23%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | CSKA Moscow 4.35. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Krasnodar as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Krasnodar 40% | CSKA Moscow 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 50% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.70 / CSKA Moscow 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.141 / def 0.915 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.176 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
1.09
CSKA Moscow xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 16:45 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
FC Krasnodar 1 - 0 CSKA Moscow.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow part of?
FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 50% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow?
Record (5 meetings): FC Krasnodar 1W | Draws 2 | CSKA Moscow 2W.
What form are FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Krasnodar's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against CSKA Moscow's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (1.18x) against FC Krasnodar's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
50%
1.99
27%
3.69
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.79
1.09
CSKA Moscow xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
4%
24.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.09 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, FC Krasnodar have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 23W 14D 10L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 24W 14D 9L from 47 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for FC Krasnodar against 1.83 for CSKA Moscow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Krasnodar have posted 2.17 PPG from 23 outings (15W 5D 3L).
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 7W 9D 7L from 23 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of CSKA Moscow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.85 scored and 1.06 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Krasnodar have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; CSKA Moscow in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 23W 14D 10L in their last 47 games (1.77 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 24W 14D 9L in their last 47 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or CSKA Moscow away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.17 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.30 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-1 on 10 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Krasnodar have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Krasnodar
3
Draws
3
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 4, CSKA Moscow have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when FC Krasnodar 3-2 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 61%, CSKA Moscow 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (FC Krasnodar) and 56% (CSKA Moscow). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of FC Krasnodar's games and 65% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of FC Krasnodar's matches and 56% of CSKA Moscow's.
Do FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out CSKA Moscow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat CSKA Moscow 1-0 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.70 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.09 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. CSKA Moscow landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.14 / defence 0.92 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.18 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 50% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 23%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 60%, CSKA Moscow 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 1.77 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Krasnodar win broke the near-deadlock. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.