Baltika 0-1 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rubin at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baltika vs Rubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Rubin travel to Rostec Arena to take on Baltika in Premier League (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023 at 16:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Baltika stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Baltika at home: 3W 2D 3L from their last 8 home games — 1.38 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Rubin — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Rubin's away record over their last 8 away games: 4W 1D 3L (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from their last 8 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Rubin's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Baltika's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Baltika, 1 for Rubin and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended Baltika 0–1 Rubin — a Rubin win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Baltika trading profile (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Rubin trading profile (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 35% versus Rubin 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 35% | Rubin 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 0.83 xG and Rubin 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.702 / defence 1.243 | Rubin attack 0.886 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.011. Baltika's attack rating of 0.702 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Baltika's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rubin's projected output up. Data: built from Baltika's last 17 games and Rubin's last 17.
Result probabilities: Baltika 25% | Draw 34% | Rubin 40%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 3.96 | Draw 2.90 | Rubin 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rubin as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Baltika's last 8 home games and Rubin's last 8 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Baltika 38% (last 8 home games) | Rubin 25% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, matchday 18 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 16:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 25% | Draw 34% | Rubin 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Baltika 0.83 / Rubin 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.702 / def 1.243 | Rubin attack 0.886 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Rubin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Rubin xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baltika vs Rubin FAQs
What time does Baltika vs Rubin kick off?
Baltika vs Rubin kicked off at 16:45 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Rubin?
Baltika 0 - 1 Rubin.
Where is Baltika vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Rubin part of?
Baltika vs Rubin is a Premier League fixture (matchday 18) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 25% chance of winning, Rubin a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Rubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Baltika and Rubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Baltika vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Baltika's attack at 0.70x the league average against Rubin's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rubin's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baltika's last 17 games and Rubin's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
25%
3.96
34%
2.90
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Baltika xG
Total xG
1.94
1.11
Rubin xG
3.96
25%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
8%
12.08
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 15.9 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baltika vs Rubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Baltika and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Baltika and 1.11 for Rubin, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baltika's recent record stands at 3W 4D 10L from 17 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five.
Rubin, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 6L across 17 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rubin by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baltika heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Baltika have managed 3W 2D 3L from their last 8 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.76 PPG overall — Baltika are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rubin's away record stands at 4W 1D 3L across their last 8 away games, a 1.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Baltika are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 0.94 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Rubin in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Rubin
Blended
Baltika (Home) vs Rubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baltika
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Baltika vs Rubin Form FAQs
What form are Baltika and Rubin in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 games (0.76 PPG), while Rubin have gone 7W 4D 6L in their last 17 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Rubin away?
Rubin's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.38 PPG; Rubin away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Baltika or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Rubin in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 24 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Oct 2025, when Baltika won Rubin 0-3 Baltika.
Baltika's record when hosting Rubin specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Baltika
1
Draws
3
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Baltika vs Rubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Rubin?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Baltika have won 1, Rubin have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Baltika and Rubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2026: Baltika 1-1 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Rubin?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Baltika 38% BTTS, Rubin 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Baltika) and 38% (Rubin).
On the defensive side: Rubin in 50%; Baltika have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baltika vs Rubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baltika and Rubin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Baltika's recent matches and 25% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baltika and Rubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Baltika's recent games and 38% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Rubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Baltika's recent matches and 62% of Rubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rubin edge out Baltika 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Baltika 0-1 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 0.83 xG and Rubin 1.11 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baltika fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.70 / defence 1.24 against Rubin attack 0.89 / defence 0.82, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 25% | Draw 34% | Rubin 40%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 35%, Rubin 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rubin's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.76. That form edge translated into the three points. Baltika (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Rubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.