Khimki 0-0 Ural – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khimki at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khimki vs Ural fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Khimki plays host to Khimki versus Ural in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 31 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Khimki (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki's home record at Arena Khimki: 1W 4D 1L from 6 Premier League appearances (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ural have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ural's away record: 1W 0D 4L from 5 road trips in Premier League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Khimki against 0.80 for Ural. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Khimki half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games).
Ural half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khimki 58% versus Ural 17%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Khimki 42% | Ural 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 1.22 xG and Ural 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.844 / defence 1.002 | Ural attack 0.543 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.134. Ural bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Khimki's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Khimki games / 12 Ural games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 51% | Draw 30% | Ural 19%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Ural 5.26. Khimki hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Ural's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Khimki as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khimki if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khimki 67% | Ural 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 51% | Draw 30% | Ural 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 32% | xG Khimki 1.22 / Ural 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.844 / def 1.002 | Ural attack 0.543 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Khimki (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Ural xG
32%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs Ural kick off?
Khimki vs Ural kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Ural?
Khimki 0 - 0 Ural.
Where is Khimki vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Ural part of?
Khimki vs Ural is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 51% chance of winning, Ural a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Khimki and Ural will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Ural?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khimki and Ural in?
Khimki (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Ural (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Khimki's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Ural's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Ural's attack (0.54x) against Khimki's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.5%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
51%
1.96
30%
3.30
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Khimki xG
Total xG
1.84
0.62
Ural xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.08
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
6%
18.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 9.8 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.4 | 12.0 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Khimki and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Khimki and 0.62 for Ural, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Ural?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Khimki have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 2W 5D 5L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ural's form line: 2W 3D 7L from 12 games, 0.75 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Khimki against 0.75 for Ural. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Khimki have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (1W 4D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Khimki are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ural have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khimki come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Khimki are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 0.42 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ural in 17%.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Blended
Ural
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and Ural in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Ural have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or Ural away?
Khimki's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 1.40 PPG; Ural away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Khimki or Ural been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khimki have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ural in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Ural go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ural won 0-3 on 27 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khimki have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ural — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Khimki
1
Draws
2
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Ural?
From 4 meetings on record, Khimki have won 1, Ural have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and Ural last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2023, when Khimki 0-3 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Ural?
Ural have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 60% (Khimki) and 0% (Ural) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Khimki and 20% for Ural.
On the defensive side: Khimki keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ural in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play Ural?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Khimki's recent matches and 0% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khimki vs Ural usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Khimki's recent games and 20% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and Ural tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ural in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Khimki's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khimki and Ural finished level at 0-0 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.22 xG and Ural 0.62 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Khimki fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.84 / defence 1.00 against Ural attack 0.54 / defence 1.24, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 51% | Draw 30% | Ural 19%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 42%, Ural 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ural's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khimki 0.92 PPG, Ural 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Ural (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.