Khimki 2-2 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Krasnodar (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Khimki face FC Krasnodar.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Khimki welcome FC Krasnodar to Arena Khimki. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Khimki have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Khimki, Khimki have gone 1W 3D 3L this season (7 games, 0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Krasnodar — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FC Krasnodar's 2.80 PPG return is 2.10 points per game ahead of Khimki's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Khimki, 3 for FC Krasnodar and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 0–4 with FC Krasnodar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Khimki trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC Krasnodar trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khimki 53% versus FC Krasnodar 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 47% | FC Krasnodar 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 0.96 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.952 / defence 1.137 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.311 / defence 0.743. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.271. FC Krasnodar's defence strength of 0.743 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. FC Krasnodar have an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — the away xG of 1.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Khimki games / 45 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 16% | Draw 28% | FC Krasnodar 57%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 6.25 | Draw 3.57 | FC Krasnodar 1.75. The model has a clear lean to FC Krasnodar (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Khimki 57% | FC Krasnodar 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 16% | Draw 28% | FC Krasnodar 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Khimki 0.96 / FC Krasnodar 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.952 / def 1.137 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.311 / def 0.743 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.90
FC Krasnodar xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Khimki vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs FC Krasnodar?
Khimki 2 - 2 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Khimki vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Khimki vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 16% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 57% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Khimki and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and FC Krasnodar?
Record (5 meetings): Khimki 1W | Draws 1 | FC Krasnodar 3W.
What form are Khimki and FC Krasnodar in?
Khimki (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Khimki vs FC Krasnodar?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Khimki's attack at 0.95x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Krasnodar's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
16%
6.31
28%
3.62
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.85
1.90
FC Krasnodar xG
6.31
16%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
15%
6.66
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
2%
42.04
22%
4.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Khimki and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Khimki and 1.90 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs FC Krasnodar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khimki come into this having played 15 games, going 2W 6D 7L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Krasnodar sit at 2.47 PPG from 15 outings (11W 4D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of Khimki — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Khimki's home form reads 1W 3D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Krasnodar have taken 2.43 points per game from 7 outings (5W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khimki are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 2.13 scored and 0.47 conceded.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 2W 6D 7L in their last 15 games (0.80 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 11W 4D 0L in their last 15 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 0.86 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 2.43 PPG.
Have Khimki or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khimki have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when FC Krasnodar won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khimki's record when hosting FC Krasnodar specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Khimki
2
Draws
3
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and FC Krasnodar?
From 6 meetings on record, Khimki have won 1, FC Krasnodar have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Khimki 2-2 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khimki see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khimki 57%, FC Krasnodar 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Khimki) and 57% (FC Krasnodar).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar in 57%; Khimki have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play FC Krasnodar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Khimki's recent matches and 43% of FC Krasnodar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khimki vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Khimki's recent games and 57% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khimki and FC Krasnodar share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khimki and FC Krasnodar finished level at 2-2 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 0.96 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.90 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Khimki beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.31 / defence 0.74, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 16% | Draw 28% | FC Krasnodar 57%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 47%, FC Krasnodar 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Khimki (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.