Fakel 0-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fakel at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fakel and Krylia Sovetov meet at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 25 April 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fakel have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fakel have posted 3W 5D 2L at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Fakel are significantly better at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov than their overall form suggests.
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Krylia Sovetov arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fakel lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fakel half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 46% versus Krylia Sovetov 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 33% | Krylia Sovetov 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 1.12 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.718 / defence 0.754 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.882 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.339. Fakel's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fakel's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Fakel games / 54 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 41% | Draw 31% | Krylia Sovetov 29%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Krylia Sovetov 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fakel are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Krylia Sovetov (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fakel if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fakel 20% | Krylia Sovetov 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Apr 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 41% | Draw 31% | Krylia Sovetov 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Fakel 1.12 / Krylia Sovetov 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.718 / def 0.754 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.882 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Fakel (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Krylia Sovetov xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 16:15 on Thursday 25 April 2024 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Fakel 0 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What competition is Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 41% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fakel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Fakel and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (3 meetings): Fakel 1W | Draws 1 | Krylia Sovetov 1W.
What form are Fakel and Krylia Sovetov in?
Fakel (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fakel's attack rating (0.72) and Krylia Sovetov's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.88x) against Fakel's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fakel Win
41%
2.46
31%
3.26
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Fakel xG
Total xG
2.02
0.89
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
9%
10.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Fakel and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Fakel and 0.89 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fakel come into this having played 54 games, going 14W 19D 21L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.26 PPG from 54 outings (18W 14D 22L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Fakel against 1.26 for Krylia Sovetov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fakel's home form reads 8W 13D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 0.93 points per game from 27 outings (7W 4D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fakel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fakel are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.37 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 14W 19D 21L in their last 54 games (1.13 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 18W 14D 22L in their last 54 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Fakel's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.37 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Fakel or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won 3-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fakel have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Fakel
2
Draws
3
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Krylia Sovetov?
From 6 meetings on record, Fakel have won 1, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Fakel 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 48%, Krylia Sovetov 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Fakel) and 70% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Fakel have failed to score in 26% of games; Krylia Sovetov in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Fakel's games and 67% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Fakel's recent games and 70% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Krylia Sovetov defy the odds to beat Fakel 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Fakel 0-1 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 1.12 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.89 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fakel fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.72 / defence 0.75 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.88 / defence 1.17, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 41% | Draw 31% | Krylia Sovetov 29%, with Fakel to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Krylia Sovetov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 33%, Krylia Sovetov 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fakel 1.13 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Fakel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.