Fakel 1-1 Dinamo Makhachkala – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 46% as Fakel take on Dinamo Makhachkala.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fakel and Dinamo Makhachkala meet at Stadion Fakel in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fakel have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fakel at Stadion Fakel this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Fakel. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Fakel are significantly better at Stadion Fakel than their overall form suggests.
Dinamo Makhachkala's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dinamo Makhachkala away from home this season: 1W 3D 2L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Fakel, 1.00 for Dinamo Makhachkala — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Fakel have seen both teams score in just 10% of their games, Dinamo Makhachkala in only 17%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading & In-Play
Fakel — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Dinamo Makhachkala — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Fakel 30% | Dinamo Makhachkala 20%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fakel 40% | Dinamo Makhachkala 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 0.68 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.578 / defence 0.643 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.560 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.196. Fakel's attack strength of 0.578 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fakel's defence rating of 0.643 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Fakel games / 10 Dinamo Makhachkala games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 35% | Draw 46% | Dinamo Makhachkala 19%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 2.86 | Draw 2.17 | Dinamo Makhachkala 5.26. The draw (46%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 10% | BTTS probability 19% | Total xG 1.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 90% probability — total xG of 1.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 81% — Dinamo Makhachkala's lower xG of 0.43 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 19%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 46% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 19% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 10% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 19% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fakel 10% | Dinamo Makhachkala 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Dinamo Makhachkala | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Fakel • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 35% | Draw 46% | Dinamo Makhachkala 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 10% | BTTS 19% | xG Fakel 0.68 / Dinamo Makhachkala 0.43 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.578 / def 0.643 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.560 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Draw (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
0.43
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
19%
BTTS
32%
Over 1.5
10%
Over 2.5
3%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Dinamo Makhachkala kick off?
Fakel vs Dinamo Makhachkala kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Stadion Fakel.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Fakel 1 - 1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Where is Fakel vs Dinamo Makhachkala being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Fakel.
What competition is Fakel vs Dinamo Makhachkala part of?
Fakel vs Dinamo Makhachkala is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 35% chance of winning, Dinamo Makhachkala a 19% chance, and a 46% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our model estimates a 19% probability that both Fakel and Dinamo Makhachkala will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Dinamo Makhachkala have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 10%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Dinamo Makhachkala?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fakel and Dinamo Makhachkala in?
Fakel (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Fakel vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fakel's attack rating (0.58) and Dinamo Makhachkala's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dinamo Makhachkala's attack (0.56x) against Fakel's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.43.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 34.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (21.1%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 68% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.87
46%
2.16
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
33.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
22.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Fakel xG
Total xG
1.11
0.43
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
2.87
35%
Home win
2.16
46%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
30%
Over 1.5
3.33
70%
Under 1.5
1.43
10%
Over 2.5
10.00
90%
Under 2.5
1.11
3%
Over 3.5
33.33
97%
Under 3.5
1.03
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
19%
BTTS Yes
5.34
81%
BTTS No
1.23
Clean Sheet
65%
1.54
51%
1.97
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
10%
10.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 33.0 | 14.2 | 3.1 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 1 | 22.4 | 9.6 | 2.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 34.3%.
How many goals are Fakel and Dinamo Makhachkala expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Fakel and 0.43 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 1.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fakel's recent record stands at 1W 3D 6L from 10 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dinamo Makhachkala, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 4L across 10 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Dinamo Makhachkala is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dinamo Makhachkala by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fakel heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fakel have managed 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.60 PPG overall — Fakel are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dinamo Makhachkala's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fakel are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Dinamo Makhachkala are on 0.40 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fakel have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Dinamo Makhachkala in 20%.
Defensively: Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Dinamo Makhachkala in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Dinamo Makhachkala in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 games (0.60 PPG), while Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Dinamo Makhachkala away?
Fakel's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.20 PPG; Dinamo Makhachkala away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Fakel or Dinamo Makhachkala been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Dinamo Makhachkala in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fakel have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dinamo Makhachkala — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Fakel
2
Draws
1
Dinamo Makhachkala
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Dinamo Makhachkala?
From 3 meetings on record, Fakel have won 0, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Dinamo Makhachkala last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Fakel 1-2 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Dinamo Makhachkala?
Dinamo Makhachkala have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fakel tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Fakel) and 0% (Dinamo Makhachkala) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Fakel and 0% for Dinamo Makhachkala.
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Dinamo Makhachkala in 60%; Fakel have failed to score in 80% of games; Dinamo Makhachkala in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Dinamo Makhachkala away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Fakel's recent matches and 0% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fakel vs Dinamo Makhachkala usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Fakel's recent games and 0% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and Dinamo Makhachkala tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Dinamo Makhachkala in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fakel and Dinamo Makhachkala share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Fakel, Regular Season - 11, as Fakel and Dinamo Makhachkala drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 0.68 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.43 xG, a combined 1.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.58 / defence 0.64 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.56 / defence 0.88, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 35% | Draw 46% | Dinamo Makhachkala 19%, with the draw its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 10%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 32% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 19% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 40%, Dinamo Makhachkala 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dinamo Makhachkala arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fakel (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.