Fakel 0-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fakel vs CSKA Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Fakel plays host to Fakel versus CSKA Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 8 December 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fakel's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 7D 2L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fakel's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 games at Stadion Fakel this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Fakel. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
CSKA Moscow have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, CSKA Moscow are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
CSKA Moscow hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. CSKA Moscow have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Fakel half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 39% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 4% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
CSKA Moscow half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 38% versus CSKA Moscow 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 28% | CSKA Moscow 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 0.71 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.663 / defence 0.752 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.110 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.313. Fakel's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. CSKA Moscow's defence strength of 0.766 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fakel's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Fakel games / 47 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 21% | Draw 38% | CSKA Moscow 41%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 4.76 | Draw 2.63 | CSKA Moscow 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fakel 30% | CSKA Moscow 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Fakel • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 21% | Draw 38% | CSKA Moscow 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Fakel 0.71 / CSKA Moscow 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.663 / def 0.752 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.110 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
1.09
CSKA Moscow xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Fakel vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Stadion Fakel.
What was the final score in Fakel vs CSKA Moscow?
Fakel 0 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Fakel vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Fakel.
What competition is Fakel vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Fakel vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 21% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 41% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Fakel and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and CSKA Moscow?
Record (5 meetings): Fakel 0W | Draws 2 | CSKA Moscow 3W.
What form are Fakel and CSKA Moscow in?
Fakel (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fakel's attack at 0.66x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (1.11x) against Fakel's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
21%
4.82
38%
2.64
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Fakel xG
Total xG
1.81
1.09
CSKA Moscow xG
4.82
21%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
7%
14.41
20%
4.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 17.9 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Fakel and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Fakel and 1.09 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Fakel have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 9W 19D 19L record — D-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 20W 16D 11L from 47 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, CSKA Moscow are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fakel.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fakel have posted 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (5W 13D 5L).
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 9W 9D 5L from 23 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Fakel are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.77 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 9W 19D 19L in their last 47 games (0.98 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 20W 16D 11L in their last 47 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.22 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Fakel or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
CSKA Moscow go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-1 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fakel have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Fakel
2
Draws
5
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and CSKA Moscow?
From 7 meetings on record, Fakel have won 0, CSKA Moscow have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-0 Fakel.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fakel see a goal before the break in 39% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 30%, CSKA Moscow 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 4% for Fakel and 56% for CSKA Moscow.
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; CSKA Moscow in 30%; Fakel have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Fakel's recent matches and 65% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fakel vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 4% of Fakel's recent games and 56% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 39% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as CSKA Moscow edge out Fakel 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Fakel 0-1 at Stadion Fakel, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 0.71 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.09 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.66 / defence 0.75 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.11 / defence 0.77, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 21% | Draw 38% | CSKA Moscow 41%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 28%, CSKA Moscow 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.