Dinamo Makhachkala 0-2 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Anzhi Arena plays host to Dinamo Makhachkala versus FC Krasnodar in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 18 October 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dinamo Makhachkala have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dinamo Makhachkala's home record at Anzhi Arena: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Dinamo Makhachkala are significantly better at Anzhi Arena than their overall form suggests.
FC Krasnodar's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Krasnodar are 1.00 PPG clear of Dinamo Makhachkala in recent Premier League fixtures (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dinamo Makhachkala lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2025, ended 2–3 with FC Krasnodar winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Dinamo Makhachkala half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
FC Krasnodar half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dinamo Makhachkala 42% versus FC Krasnodar 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dinamo Makhachkala 24% | FC Krasnodar 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 0.73 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.766 / defence 0.730 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.278 / defence 0.646. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.181. Dinamo Makhachkala's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Krasnodar's defence strength of 0.646 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. FC Krasnodar have an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — the away xG of 1.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Dinamo Makhachkala's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Dinamo Makhachkala games / 41 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 22% | Draw 36% | FC Krasnodar 42%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 4.55 | Draw 2.78 | FC Krasnodar 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Krasnodar at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dinamo Makhachkala 50% | FC Krasnodar 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 22% | Draw 36% | FC Krasnodar 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 0.73 / FC Krasnodar 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.766 / def 0.730 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.278 / def 0.646 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
1.10
FC Krasnodar xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Anzhi Arena.
What was the final score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar?
Dinamo Makhachkala 0 - 2 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 22% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 42% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar?
Record (2 meetings): Dinamo Makhachkala 0W | Draws 1 | FC Krasnodar 1W.
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar in?
Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dinamo Makhachkala's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against FC Krasnodar's defensive record (0.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (1.28x) against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
22%
4.59
36%
2.76
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
1.83
1.10
FC Krasnodar xG
4.59
22%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
7%
13.81
20%
4.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 17.7 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.10 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dinamo Makhachkala come into this having played 41 games, going 8W 15D 18L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Dinamo Makhachkala is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Krasnodar sit at 2.20 PPG from 41 outings (27W 9D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Dinamo Makhachkala — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Dinamo Makhachkala's home form reads 6W 8D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Krasnodar have taken 2.10 points per game from 20 outings (12W 6D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.98 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 8W 15D 18L in their last 41 games (0.95 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 27W 9D 5L in their last 41 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dinamo Makhachkala at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 1.30 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Dinamo Makhachkala or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Krasnodar go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Dinamo Makhachkala
1
Draws
4
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar?
From 5 meetings on record, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 0, FC Krasnodar have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dinamo Makhachkala 50%, FC Krasnodar 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Dinamo Makhachkala) and 55% (FC Krasnodar).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar in 50%; Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dinamo Makhachkala play FC Krasnodar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 45% of FC Krasnodar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 55% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Dinamo Makhachkala have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Krasnodar cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dinamo Makhachkala.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat Dinamo Makhachkala 0-2 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 0.73 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.10 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Krasnodar outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.77 / defence 0.73 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.28 / defence 0.65, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 22% | Draw 36% | FC Krasnodar 42%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 24%, FC Krasnodar 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.