Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dynamo at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Dynamo travel to Anzhi Arena to take on Dinamo Makhachkala. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dinamo Makhachkala — All Games: 2W 4D 3L from 9 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.11 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 0.44 goals per game and conceding 0.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.78 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dinamo Makhachkala's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at Anzhi Arena this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dynamo stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dynamo are 0.59 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.11), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Dinamo Makhachkala trading profile (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 56% of games.
Dynamo trading profile (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games; Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dinamo Makhachkala 22% versus Dynamo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dinamo Makhachkala 0% | Dynamo 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 0.96 xG and Dynamo 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.729 / defence 0.997 | Dynamo attack 1.155 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.235. Dinamo Makhachkala's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Dinamo Makhachkala games / 39 Dynamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 23% | Draw 32% | Dynamo 45%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 4.35 | Draw 3.12 | Dynamo 2.22. Dynamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dinamo Makhachkala 33% | Dynamo 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 23% | Draw 32% | Dynamo 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 0.96 / Dynamo 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.729 / def 0.997 | Dynamo attack 1.155 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Dynamo xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Anzhi Arena.
What was the final score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo?
Dinamo Makhachkala 0 - 1 Dynamo.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 23% chance of winning, Dynamo a 45% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo will score (BTTS).
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo in?
Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 2W-4D-3L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 0.44 / GA 0.78 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Dynamo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dinamo Makhachkala's attack rating (0.73) and Dynamo's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo's attack versus Dinamo Makhachkala's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
23%
4.35
32%
3.16
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
2.38
1.42
Dynamo xG
4.35
23%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
6%
18.03
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.2 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.42 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Dinamo Makhachkala have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 2W 4D 3L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Dinamo Makhachkala is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo's form line: 5W 2D 2L from 9 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Dynamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dynamo are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dinamo Makhachkala.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dinamo Makhachkala have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Dynamo have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dynamo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dinamo Makhachkala come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.89 scored and 1.11 conceded. Dynamo's attacking output running into Dinamo Makhachkala's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Dinamo Makhachkala have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games.
Defensively: Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dinamo Makhachkala at home or Dynamo away?
Dinamo Makhachkala's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 1.33 PPG; Dynamo away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Dinamo Makhachkala or Dynamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Dynamo in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Dynamo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2025, when Dynamo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dinamo Makhachkala's record when hosting Dynamo specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
Draws
4
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo?
From 5 meetings on record, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 1, Dynamo have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Dynamo 3-1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dinamo Makhachkala see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dinamo Makhachkala 33%, Dynamo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Dinamo Makhachkala and 67% for Dynamo.
On the defensive side: Dinamo Makhachkala keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 33% of games; Dynamo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dinamo Makhachkala play Dynamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 67% of Dynamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 67% of Dynamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo tend to score early?
Dinamo Makhachkala have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Dynamo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo edge out Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 0.96 xG and Dynamo 1.42 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dinamo Makhachkala fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.73 / defence 1.00 against Dynamo attack 1.16 / defence 0.98, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 23% | Draw 32% | Dynamo 45%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 0%, Dynamo 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Dynamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.