FC Rostov 0-0 Dinamo Makhachkala – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Rostov vs Dinamo Makhachkala fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rostov Arena plays host to FC Rostov versus Dinamo Makhachkala in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FC Rostov (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Rostov at Rostov Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FC Rostov are significantly better at Rostov Arena than their overall form suggests.
Dinamo Makhachkala's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 3L from 8 games (1.12 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for FC Rostov against 1.12 for Dinamo Makhachkala. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
FC Rostov half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Dinamo Makhachkala half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Rostov 62% versus Dinamo Makhachkala 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Rostov 62% | Dinamo Makhachkala 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.64 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 1.210 / defence 1.003 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.585 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.265. Data: 38 FC Rostov games / 8 Dinamo Makhachkala games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 58% | Draw 27% | Dinamo Makhachkala 16%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Dinamo Makhachkala 6.25. The model has a clear lean to FC Rostov (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Rostov at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC Rostov 80% | Dinamo Makhachkala 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs Dinamo Makhachkala | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 58% | Draw 27% | Dinamo Makhachkala 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG FC Rostov 1.64 / Dinamo Makhachkala 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 1.210 / def 1.003 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.585 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Rostov vs Dinamo Makhachkala kick off?
FC Rostov vs Dinamo Makhachkala kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
FC Rostov 0 - 0 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Where is FC Rostov vs Dinamo Makhachkala being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs Dinamo Makhachkala part of?
FC Rostov vs Dinamo Makhachkala is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 58% chance of winning, Dinamo Makhachkala a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FC Rostov and Dinamo Makhachkala will score (BTTS).
Will FC Rostov vs Dinamo Makhachkala have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Dinamo Makhachkala?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Rostov and Dinamo Makhachkala in?
FC Rostov (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.88 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Rostov's attack rating (1.21) and Dinamo Makhachkala's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dinamo Makhachkala's attack (0.58x) against FC Rostov's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
58%
1.73
27%
3.73
16%
6.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
2.38
0.74
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
6.42
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
3%
33.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.2 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and Dinamo Makhachkala expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for FC Rostov and 0.74 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Rostov's recent record stands at 3W 2D 3L from 8 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Rostov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dinamo Makhachkala, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 3L across 8 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Dinamo Makhachkala is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for FC Rostov against 1.12 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Rostov have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — FC Rostov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dinamo Makhachkala's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Rostov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Rostov are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Dinamo Makhachkala are on 0.50 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Dinamo Makhachkala in 25%.
Defensively: Dinamo Makhachkala in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Blended
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Rostov and Dinamo Makhachkala in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or Dinamo Makhachkala away?
FC Rostov's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 2.00 PPG; Dinamo Makhachkala away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Rostov or Dinamo Makhachkala been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Rostov have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Dinamo Makhachkala in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Rostov have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dinamo Makhachkala — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC Rostov
3
Draws
0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Dinamo Makhachkala?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Rostov have won 1, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and Dinamo Makhachkala last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Dinamo Makhachkala 1-2 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and Dinamo Makhachkala?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Rostov 75%, Dinamo Makhachkala 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for FC Rostov and 0% for Dinamo Makhachkala.
On the defensive side: Dinamo Makhachkala in 50%; Dinamo Makhachkala in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / Dinamo Makhachkala away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Rostov play Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of FC Rostov's recent matches and 0% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Rostov vs Dinamo Makhachkala usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Rostov's recent games and 0% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Rostov and Dinamo Makhachkala tend to score early?
FC Rostov have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Dinamo Makhachkala in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Rostov's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov and Dinamo Makhachkala finished level at 0-0 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.64 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.74 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Rostov fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 1.21 / defence 1.00 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.58 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 58% | Draw 27% | Dinamo Makhachkala 16%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 62%, Dinamo Makhachkala 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Rostov 1.38 PPG, Dinamo Makhachkala 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.