Arsenal Tula 2-1 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arsenal Tula vs Zenit encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Zenit travel to Stadion Arsenal to take on Arsenal Tula. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Arsenal Tula have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal Tula, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal Tula's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 1L across 5 games at Stadion Arsenal this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Zenit — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit's away record: 3W 2D 0L from 5 road trips in Premier League this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Zenit are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Arsenal Tula register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zenit in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Arsenal Tula in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Zenit in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Arsenal Tula 70% and Zenit 90% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Arsenal Tula 70% | Zenit 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal Tula 1.00 xG and Zenit 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal Tula attack 0.874 / defence 1.225 | Zenit attack 1.210 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.174. Zenit have an above-average attack strength of 1.210 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Arsenal Tula games / 10 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal Tula 22% | Draw 24% | Zenit 55%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal Tula 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Zenit 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Arsenal Tula 60% | Zenit 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal Tula vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Arsenal • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal Tula 22% | Draw 24% | Zenit 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Arsenal Tula 1.00 / Zenit 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal Tula attack 0.874 / def 1.225 | Zenit attack 1.210 / def 1.160 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Zenit (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Arsenal Tula xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Zenit xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal Tula vs Zenit kick off?
Arsenal Tula vs Zenit kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stadion Arsenal.
What was the final score in Arsenal Tula vs Zenit?
Arsenal Tula 2 - 1 Zenit.
Where is Arsenal Tula vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arsenal.
What competition is Arsenal Tula vs Zenit part of?
Arsenal Tula vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal Tula vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal Tula a 22% chance of winning, Zenit a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal Tula vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Arsenal Tula and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal Tula vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal Tula and Zenit?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arsenal Tula and Zenit in?
Arsenal Tula (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Zenit (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arsenal Tula's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Zenit's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Arsenal Tula's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
22%
4.62
24%
4.23
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Arsenal Tula xG
Total xG
2.74
1.74
Zenit xG
4.62
22%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
4%
26.31
20%
4.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal Tula vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Arsenal Tula and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Arsenal Tula and 1.74 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal Tula vs Zenit?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arsenal Tula come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 3D 5L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Arsenal Tula is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zenit sit at 2.30 PPG from 10 outings (7W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Arsenal Tula — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Arsenal Tula's home form reads 1W 3D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Zenit have taken 2.20 points per game from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arsenal Tula are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arsenal Tula have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Zenit in 90%.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal Tula
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal Tula and Zenit in coming into this match?
Arsenal Tula have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Zenit have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal Tula at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal Tula at home: 1.20 PPG; Zenit away: 2.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Arsenal Tula
0
Draws
1
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal Tula and Zenit?
From 2 meetings on record, Arsenal Tula have won 1, Zenit have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal Tula and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Zenit 3-0 Arsenal Tula.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arsenal Tula are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Arsenal Tula at 60%, Zenit at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Arsenal Tula and 60% for Zenit. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal Tula have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal Tula home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal Tula play Zenit?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Arsenal Tula's games and 100% of Zenit's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arsenal Tula vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Arsenal Tula's matches and 60% of Zenit's.
Do Arsenal Tula and Zenit tend to score early?
Arsenal Tula have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Zenit in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Arsenal Tula defy the odds to beat Zenit 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal Tula beat Zenit 2-1 at Stadion Arsenal, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal Tula 1.00 xG and Zenit 1.74 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Arsenal Tula beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal Tula attack 0.87 / defence 1.23 against Zenit attack 1.21 / defence 1.16, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal Tula 22% | Draw 24% | Zenit 55%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Arsenal Tula win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal Tula 70%, Zenit 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal Tula's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Zenit's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Arsenal Tula winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arsenal Tula (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.