Vizela 1-1 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vizela vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vizela host Santa Clara at Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vizela stand at 1W 4D 2L from 7 Primeira Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Vizela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vizela at Estádio Do Vizela this season: 1W 2D 0L from 3 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Vizela are significantly better at Estádio Do Vizela than their overall form suggests.
Santa Clara — All Games: 1W 2D 4L from 7 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.71 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 2.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.14 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Santa Clara have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Santa Clara away from home this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.71 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vizela 1.00 PPG, Santa Clara 0.71 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Vizela in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 57% versus Santa Clara 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 57% | Santa Clara 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.42 xG and Santa Clara 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.916 / defence 1.143 | Santa Clara attack 0.667 / defence 1.490. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.146. Santa Clara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.490 — this is suppressing Vizela's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Vizela games / 7 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 46% | Draw 35% | Santa Clara 19%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 2.17 | Draw 2.86 | Santa Clara 5.26. Vizela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vizela as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vizela offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Vizela 100% | Santa Clara 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 46% | Draw 35% | Santa Clara 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Vizela 1.42 / Santa Clara 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.916 / def 1.143 | Santa Clara attack 0.667 / def 1.490 | league avg home 1.042 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Vizela (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Santa Clara xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Santa Clara kick off?
Vizela vs Santa Clara kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Santa Clara?
Vizela 1 - 1 Santa Clara.
Where is Vizela vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Santa Clara part of?
Vizela vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 46% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 19% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vizela and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Santa Clara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vizela and Santa Clara in?
Vizela (all comps): 1W-4D-2L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Santa Clara (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 2.14 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vizela's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Santa Clara's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Vizela's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
46%
2.17
35%
2.90
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.30
0.87
Santa Clara xG
2.17
46%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
5%
21.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Vizela and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Vizela and 0.87 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Vizela have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 4D 2L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Vizela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Santa Clara's form line: 1W 2D 4L from 7 games, 0.71 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Santa Clara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vizela on 1.00 PPG, Santa Clara on 0.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vizela have posted 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Vizela are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Santa Clara have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vizela come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vizela are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 0.71 scored and 2.14 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Early Season
Santa Clara
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 1W 4D 2L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Santa Clara away?
Vizela's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.67 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vizela and Santa Clara runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vizela's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vizela
1
Draws
2
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Santa Clara?
From 4 meetings on record, Vizela have won 1, Santa Clara have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when Santa Clara 0-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Santa Clara?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vizela at 100%, Santa Clara at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Vizela) and 67% (Santa Clara).
On the defensive side: Santa Clara in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Santa Clara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Vizela's games and 33% of Santa Clara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vizela vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Vizela's recent games and 67% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vizela and Santa Clara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vizela and Santa Clara finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.42 xG and Santa Clara 0.87 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against Santa Clara attack 0.67 / defence 1.49, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 46% | Draw 35% | Santa Clara 19%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 57%, Santa Clara 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Santa Clara's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.00 PPG, Santa Clara 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Santa Clara (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.