Vizela 0-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vizela vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vizela and Famalicao meet at Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Vizela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Vizela at Estádio Do Vizela this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Famalicao have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Famalicao away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Famalicao arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vizela lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Famalicao winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vizela — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Famalicao — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 51% versus Famalicao 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 45% | Famalicao 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.39 xG and Famalicao 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.939 / defence 1.180 | Famalicao attack 1.182 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.057. Data: 65 Vizela games / 65 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 36% | Draw 25% | Famalicao 39%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Famalicao 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vizela 40% | Famalicao 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 36% | Draw 25% | Famalicao 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Vizela 1.39 / Famalicao 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.939 / def 1.180 | Famalicao attack 1.182 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Famalicao xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Famalicao kick off?
Vizela vs Famalicao kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Famalicao?
Vizela 0 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is Vizela vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Famalicao part of?
Vizela vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 36% chance of winning, Famalicao a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Vizela and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Famalicao?
Record (3 meetings): Vizela 0W | Draws 2 | Famalicao 1W.
What form are Vizela and Famalicao in?
Vizela (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Famalicao (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vizela's attack at 0.94x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (1.18x) against Vizela's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
36%
2.80
25%
4.01
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.87
1.47
Famalicao xG
2.80
36%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.23
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Vizela and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Vizela and 1.47 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Vizela have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 18W 18D 29L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Famalicao's form line: 22W 15D 28L from 65 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Vizela against 1.25 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vizela have posted 1.16 PPG from 32 outings (9W 10D 13L).
On the road, Famalicao have gone 8W 7D 17L from 32 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Vizela are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.23 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Current Season
Famalicao
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 18W 18D 29L in their last 65 games (1.11 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 22W 15D 28L in their last 65 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Famalicao away?
Vizela's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.16 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vizela
4
Draws
2
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Famalicao?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 0, Famalicao have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Famalicao 3-2 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 47%, Famalicao 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Vizela) and 56% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Vizela have failed to score in 41% of games; Famalicao in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Vizela's recent matches and 56% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Vizela's recent games and 56% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Famalicao tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vizela's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vizela and Famalicao finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.39 xG and Famalicao 1.47 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vizela fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Famalicao landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.94 / defence 1.18 against Famalicao attack 1.18 / defence 1.13, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 36% | Draw 25% | Famalicao 39%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 45%, Famalicao 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Famalicao's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.11 PPG, Famalicao 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.