Vizela 1-1 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 52%, yet in-form Boavista provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vizela vs Boavista fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio da Capital do Móvel plays host to Vizela versus Boavista in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 28 August 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Vizela (all games): 1W 0D 2L across 3 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Vizela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Boavista's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Boavista have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Boavista are 1.00 PPG clear of Vizela in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Vizela half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Boavista half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Vizela 33% | Boavista 0%). Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vizela 100% | Boavista 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.62 xG and Boavista 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 1.058 / defence 1.140 | Boavista attack 0.704 / defence 1.393. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.105. Boavista bring a strong defensive rating of 1.393 — this is suppressing Vizela's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Vizela games / 3 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 52% | Draw 31% | Boavista 18%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | Boavista 5.56. Vizela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vizela at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Boavista (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vizela if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Vizela 33% | Boavista 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 52% | Draw 31% | Boavista 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Vizela 1.62 / Boavista 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 1.058 / def 1.140 | Boavista attack 0.704 / def 1.393 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Vizela (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Boavista xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Boavista kick off?
Vizela vs Boavista kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Boavista?
Vizela 1 - 1 Boavista.
Where is Vizela vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Vizela vs Boavista part of?
Vizela vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 52% chance of winning, Boavista a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Vizela and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Boavista?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vizela and Boavista in?
Vizela (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-W-L. Boavista (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vizela's attack rating (1.06) and Boavista's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.70x) against Vizela's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
52%
1.94
31%
3.25
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.50
0.89
Boavista xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
3%
28.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Vizela and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Vizela and 0.89 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vizela come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Vizela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Boavista sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Boavista, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Boavista carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Vizela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Vizela are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 0%.
Defensively: Boavista in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Early Season
Boavista
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Boavista in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Boavista have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Vizela or Boavista been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Boavista in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Boavista won 1-4 on 14 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vizela
5
Draws
1
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Boavista?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 0, Boavista have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Boavista 2-2 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Boavista?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vizela see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Vizela) and 0% (Boavista) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Vizela and 67% for Boavista. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Boavista in 67%; Vizela have failed to score in 67% of games; Boavista in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Boavista?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Vizela's recent matches and 0% of Boavista's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Vizela's matches and 67% of Boavista's.
Do Vizela and Boavista tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Boavista in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vizela and Boavista share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vizela and Boavista finished level at 1-1 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.62 xG and Boavista 0.89 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 1.06 / defence 1.14 against Boavista attack 0.70 / defence 1.39, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 52% | Draw 31% | Boavista 18%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 100%, Boavista 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Boavista's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Boavista arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vizela conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.