Tondela 0-1 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tondela at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tondela vs Pacos Ferreira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio João Cardoso plays host to Tondela versus Pacos Ferreira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 18 December 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tondela have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tondela at Estádio João Cardoso this season: 3W 0D 3L from 6 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Tondela are significantly better at Estádio João Cardoso than their overall form suggests.
Pacos Ferreira (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 road games this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Tondela against 0.50 for Pacos Ferreira. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Tondela half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Pacos Ferreira half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tondela 62% versus Pacos Ferreira 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tondela 77% | Pacos Ferreira 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tondela 1.68 xG and Pacos Ferreira 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tondela attack 1.220 / defence 1.379 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.651 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.346. Pacos Ferreira bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Tondela's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Tondela games / 14 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tondela 46% | Draw 28% | Pacos Ferreira 25%. Fair-value odds: Tondela 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Pacos Ferreira 4.00. Tondela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tondela at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tondela if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tondela 67% | Pacos Ferreira 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tondela vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio João Cardoso • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tondela 46% | Draw 28% | Pacos Ferreira 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Tondela 1.68 / Pacos Ferreira 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Tondela attack 1.220 / def 1.379 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.651 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Tondela (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Tondela xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Pacos Ferreira xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tondela vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Tondela vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Estádio João Cardoso.
What was the final score in Tondela vs Pacos Ferreira?
Tondela 0 - 1 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Tondela vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio João Cardoso.
What competition is Tondela vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Tondela vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Tondela vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Tondela a 46% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tondela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tondela vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Tondela and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Tondela vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Pacos Ferreira?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tondela and Pacos Ferreira in?
Tondela (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tondela's attack rating (1.22) and Pacos Ferreira's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pacos Ferreira's attack (0.65x) against Tondela's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tondela Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.52
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Tondela xG
Total xG
2.88
1.21
Pacos Ferreira xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
5%
21.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tondela vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Tondela and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Tondela and 1.21 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Tondela vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tondela come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 0D 9L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Tondela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pacos Ferreira sit at 0.62 PPG from 13 outings (1W 5D 7L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Tondela against 0.62 for Pacos Ferreira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Tondela's home form reads 3W 0D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Tondela are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pacos Ferreira have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tondela come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tondela are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.62 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tondela have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tondela
Blended
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tondela and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Tondela have gone 4W 0D 9L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tondela at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
Tondela's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tondela at home: 1.50 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Tondela
1
Draws
1
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Pacos Ferreira?
From 2 meetings on record, Tondela have won 0, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tondela and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2022, when Pacos Ferreira 1-1 Tondela.
Who has won more matches between Tondela and Pacos Ferreira?
Pacos Ferreira have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tondela 67%, Pacos Ferreira 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Tondela and 33% for Pacos Ferreira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tondela home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tondela play Pacos Ferreira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Tondela's games and 50% of Pacos Ferreira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tondela vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Tondela's matches and 33% of Pacos Ferreira's.
Do Tondela and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Tondela have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pacos Ferreira defy the odds to beat Tondela 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacos Ferreira beat Tondela 0-1 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 1.68 xG and Pacos Ferreira 1.21 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tondela fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 1.22 / defence 1.38 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.65 / defence 1.23, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tondela 46% | Draw 28% | Pacos Ferreira 25%, with Tondela to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Pacos Ferreira win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 77%, Pacos Ferreira 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tondela's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tondela 0.92 PPG, Pacos Ferreira 0.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacos Ferreira win broke the near-deadlock. Tondela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.