Sporting CP 8-0 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sporting CP (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sporting CP face Casa Pia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Casa Pia make the trip to Estádio José Alvalade to face Sporting CP in Primeira Liga (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Monday 29 January 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Sporting CP (all games): 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sporting CP's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Casa Pia's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Casa Pia have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Sporting CP's favour (2.40 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Sporting CP have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Casa Pia managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2023, ended Sporting CP 2–1 Casa Pia — a Sporting CP win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Sporting CP and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 4.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Sporting CP — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games).
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 54% versus Casa Pia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sporting CP 71% | Casa Pia 40%). Note also that Casa Pia surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Sporting CP recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 2.29 xG and Casa Pia 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.486 / defence 0.820 | Casa Pia attack 1.197 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.337. Sporting CP carry an above-average attack rating of 1.486 — their 2.29 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Sporting CP's last 52 games and Casa Pia's last 52.
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 59% | Draw 20% | Casa Pia 21%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 1.68 | Draw 5.11 | Casa Pia 4.75. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.29 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sporting CP as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sporting CP's last 10 home games and Casa Pia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sporting CP 60% (last 10 home games) | Casa Pia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 19 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Monday 29 January 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 59% | Draw 20% | Casa Pia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Sporting CP 2.29 / Casa Pia 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.486 / def 0.820 | Casa Pia attack 1.197 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Casa Pia xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sporting CP vs Casa Pia FAQs
What time does Sporting CP vs Casa Pia kick off?
Sporting CP vs Casa Pia kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Monday 29 January 2024 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Sporting CP 8 - 0 Casa Pia.
Where is Sporting CP vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Casa Pia part of?
Sporting CP vs Casa Pia is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 19) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 59% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sporting CP and Casa Pia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sporting CP vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sporting CP's attack at 1.49x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 2.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (1.20x) against Sporting CP's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Sporting CP's last 52 games and Casa Pia's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
59%
1.68
20%
5.11
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
3.60
1.31
Casa Pia xG
1.68
59%
Home win
5.11
20%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
10%
9.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
2%
46.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sporting CP vs Casa Pia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Sporting CP and 1.31 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sporting CP's recent record stands at 38W 6D 8L from 52 games, a 2.31 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Casa Pia, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 24L across 52 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sporting CP by 1.16 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Casa Pia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sporting CP have managed 22W 2D 2L from their last 26 home games — 2.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Casa Pia's away record stands at 9W 5D 12L across their last 26 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sporting CP are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 0.96 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
Sporting CP (Home) vs Casa Pia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sporting CP
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Sporting CP vs Casa Pia Form FAQs
What form are Sporting CP and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 38W 6D 8L in their last 52 games (2.31 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 16W 12D 24L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Casa Pia away?
Sporting CP's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 2.62 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Sporting CP and Casa Pia, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Sporting CP have taken the most recent 9 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won Sporting CP 8-0 Casa Pia on 29 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sporting CP have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
9
Sporting CP
0
Draws
0
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Sporting CP vs Casa Pia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Casa Pia?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Sporting CP have won 9, Casa Pia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Casa Pia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Casa Pia 0-2 Sporting CP.
Who has won more matches between Sporting CP and Casa Pia?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 50%, Casa Pia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Sporting CP and 46% for Casa Pia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Casa Pia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sporting CP vs Casa Pia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sporting CP and Casa Pia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 46% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sporting CP and Casa Pia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Sporting CP's matches and 46% of Casa Pia's.
Do Sporting CP and Casa Pia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 77% of Casa Pia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 8-0 hammering of Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Casa Pia 8-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 2.29 xG and Casa Pia 1.31 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 8-0 for 8 actual goals. Sporting CP beat their projection by 5.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Casa Pia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.49 / defence 0.82 against Casa Pia attack 1.20 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 59% | Draw 20% | Casa Pia 21%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 71%, Casa Pia 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Casa Pia's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 2.54 average — above their attacking norm. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 8 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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