SC Braga 2-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Braga vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SC Braga welcome GIL Vicente to Estádio Municipal de Braga in Primeira Liga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 16 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
SC Braga — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
SC Braga at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, GIL Vicente have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
GIL Vicente's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for SC Braga, 1 for GIL Vicente and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended SC Braga 3–3 GIL Vicente — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
SC Braga trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
GIL Vicente trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Braga 51% versus GIL Vicente 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Braga 63% | GIL Vicente 44%). Note also that GIL Vicente surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while SC Braga recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 1.79 xG and GIL Vicente 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 1.179 / defence 0.839 | GIL Vicente attack 0.876 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.210. Data: built from SC Braga's last 59 games and GIL Vicente's last 59.
Result probabilities: SC Braga 58% | Draw 24% | GIL Vicente 18%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 1.72 | Draw 4.13 | GIL Vicente 5.62. The model has a clear lean to SC Braga (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Braga at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SC Braga's last 10 home games and GIL Vicente's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: SC Braga 70% (last 10 home games) | GIL Vicente 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Braga vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 26 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Braga 58% | Draw 24% | GIL Vicente 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG SC Braga 1.79 / GIL Vicente 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: SC Braga attack 1.179 / def 0.839 | GIL Vicente attack 0.876 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
SC Braga xG
Expected Goals
0.89
GIL Vicente xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Braga vs GIL Vicente FAQs
What time does SC Braga vs GIL Vicente kick off?
SC Braga vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What was the final score in SC Braga vs GIL Vicente?
SC Braga 2 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is SC Braga vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What competition is SC Braga vs GIL Vicente part of?
SC Braga vs GIL Vicente is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 26) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win SC Braga vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives SC Braga a 58% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Braga vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SC Braga and GIL Vicente will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will SC Braga vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SC Braga's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus SC Braga's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SC Braga's last 59 games and GIL Vicente's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.13
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
SC Braga xG
Total xG
2.68
0.89
GIL Vicente xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
3%
33.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.9 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Braga vs GIL Vicente Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are SC Braga and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for SC Braga and 0.89 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs GIL Vicente?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Braga's recent record stands at 40W 8D 11L from 59 games, a 2.17 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 28L across 59 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Braga by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIL Vicente heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Braga have managed 20W 5D 4L from their last 29 home games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 6W 2D 21L across their last 29 away games, a 0.69 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIL Vicente's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Braga are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.12 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Braga
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
SC Braga (Home) vs GIL Vicente (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Braga
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ SC Braga vs GIL Vicente Form FAQs
What form are SC Braga and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
SC Braga have gone 40W 8D 11L in their last 59 games (2.17 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 17W 14D 28L in their last 59 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Braga at home or GIL Vicente away?
SC Braga's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Braga at home: 2.24 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.69 PPG.
Have SC Braga or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 19 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: GIL Vicente have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
SC Braga's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SC Braga
2
Draws
4
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Braga vs GIL Vicente H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and GIL Vicente?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Braga have won 4, GIL Vicente have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Braga and GIL Vicente last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2026: SC Braga 1-2 GIL Vicente.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Braga 48%, GIL Vicente 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SC Braga) and 62% (GIL Vicente). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Braga keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; GIL Vicente in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Braga home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Braga vs GIL Vicente Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Braga and GIL Vicente matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of SC Braga's recent matches and 55% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SC Braga and GIL Vicente matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of SC Braga's matches and 62% of GIL Vicente's.
Do SC Braga and GIL Vicente matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of SC Braga's recent matches and 69% of GIL Vicente's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out GIL Vicente 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat GIL Vicente 2-1 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.79 xG and GIL Vicente 0.89 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.18 / defence 0.84 against GIL Vicente attack 0.88 / defence 1.02, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Braga 58% | Draw 24% | GIL Vicente 18%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 63%, GIL Vicente 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Braga's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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