Famalicao 0-0 Estrela – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Famalicao at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Estrela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Famalicao and Estrela meet at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Famalicao (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Famalicao are significantly better at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho than their overall form suggests.
Estrela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estrela's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Famalicao against 0.90 for Estrela. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Famalicao lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Estrela winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Estrela goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 56% versus Estrela 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 44% | Estrela 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.57 xG and Estrela 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.933 / defence 1.107 | Estrela attack 0.606 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.218. Data: 58 Famalicao games / 25 Estrela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 55% | Draw 26% | Estrela 19%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Estrela 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Famalicao (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 70% | Estrela 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Estrela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 55% | Draw 26% | Estrela 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Famalicao 1.57 / Estrela 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.933 / def 1.107 | Estrela attack 0.606 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Estrela xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Estrela kick off?
Famalicao vs Estrela kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Estrela?
Famalicao 0 - 0 Estrela.
Where is Famalicao vs Estrela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Estrela part of?
Famalicao vs Estrela is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Estrela?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 55% chance of winning, Estrela a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Estrela?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Famalicao and Estrela will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Estrela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Estrela?
Record (1 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 0 | Estrela 1W.
What form are Famalicao and Estrela in?
Famalicao (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Estrela (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.93) and Estrela's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Estrela's attack (0.61x) against Famalicao's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 58/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.81
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.39
0.82
Estrela xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
4%
25.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Estrela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Estrela expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.82 for Estrela, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Estrela?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Famalicao come into this having played 27 games, going 6W 11D 10L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estrela sit at 1.04 PPG from 27 outings (7W 7D 13L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Famalicao against 1.04 for Estrela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Famalicao's home form reads 4W 4D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Estrela have taken 0.67 points per game from 12 outings (1W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Estrela are on 1.07 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Estrela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Estrela in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 6W 11D 10L in their last 27 games (1.07 PPG), while Estrela have gone 7W 7D 13L in their last 27 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Estrela away?
Famalicao's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.33 PPG; Estrela away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Famalicao won 0-3 on 19 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Estrela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Famalicao
3
Draws
2
Estrela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Estrela?
From 6 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 1, Estrela have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Estrela last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Estrela 0-0 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Estrela?
Estrela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Estrela see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 67%, Estrela 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Famalicao) and 33% (Estrela).
On the defensive side: Estrela in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Estrela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Estrela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Famalicao's recent matches and 42% of Estrela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Estrela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Famalicao's recent games and 33% of Estrela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Estrela tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Estrela in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Famalicao's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao and Estrela finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.57 xG and Estrela 0.82 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Famalicao fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Estrela landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Estrela attack 0.61 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 55% | Draw 26% | Estrela 19%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 44%, Estrela 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estrela's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.07 PPG, Estrela 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Estrela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.