Santa Clara 1-0 Guimaraes – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Guimaraes at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santa Clara vs Guimaraes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Santa Clara host Guimaraes at Estádio de São Miguel in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estádio de São Miguel, Santa Clara have gone 4W 0D 1L this season (5 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Santa Clara are significantly better at Estádio de São Miguel than their overall form suggests.

Guimaraes — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guimaraes away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Santa Clara at 1.80 PPG versus Guimaraes's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Santa Clara have won 1, Guimaraes 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 1–3 with Guimaraes winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Santa Clara in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Guimaraes in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 40% versus Guimaraes 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Santa Clara 40% | Guimaraes 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.04 xG and Guimaraes 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.843 / defence 0.940 | Guimaraes attack 1.039 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.157. Data: 10 Santa Clara games / 44 Guimaraes games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Santa Clara 33% | Draw 30% | Guimaraes 37%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Guimaraes 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Guimaraes are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guimaraes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Santa Clara 40% | Guimaraes 60%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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