Pacos Ferreira 2-1 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pacos Ferreira at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Santa Clara travel to Estádio da Capital do Móvel to take on Pacos Ferreira. The game is scheduled for Thursday 30 December 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Pacos Ferreira have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Pacos Ferreira have gone 1W 3D 4L this season (8 games, 0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Santa Clara have gone 0W 2D 5L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.29 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Pacos Ferreira) versus 0.90 (Santa Clara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Pacos Ferreira in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 40% versus Santa Clara 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacos Ferreira 33% | Santa Clara 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 1.29 xG and Santa Clara 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.701 / defence 1.152 | Santa Clara attack 0.750 / defence 1.682. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.363. Pacos Ferreira's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Santa Clara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.682 — this is suppressing Pacos Ferreira's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Pacos Ferreira games / 15 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 38% | Draw 29% | Santa Clara 33%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Santa Clara 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacos Ferreira as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacos Ferreira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pacos Ferreira 38% | Santa Clara 71%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 38% | Draw 29% | Santa Clara 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Pacos Ferreira 1.29 / Santa Clara 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.701 / def 1.152 | Santa Clara attack 0.750 / def 1.682 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Pacos Ferreira (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Santa Clara xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 30 December 2021 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara?
Pacos Ferreira 2 - 1 Santa Clara.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 38% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pacos Ferreira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Santa Clara (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pacos Ferreira's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Santa Clara's defensive record (1.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Pacos Ferreira's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacos Ferreira Win
38%
2.60
29%
3.49
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.47
1.18
Santa Clara xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.18 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacos Ferreira come into this having played 15 games, going 3W 5D 7L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santa Clara sit at 0.87 PPG from 15 outings (3W 4D 8L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacos Ferreira on 0.93 PPG, Santa Clara on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pacos Ferreira's home form reads 0W 3D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.43 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.93 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Santa Clara have taken 0.29 points per game from 7 outings (0W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 0.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
The Goals Picture
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 0.87 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 games (0.93 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 3W 4D 8L in their last 15 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Santa Clara away?
Pacos Ferreira's home record (0.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 0.43 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.29 PPG.
Have Pacos Ferreira or Santa Clara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Santa Clara in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pacos Ferreira's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Pacos Ferreira
1
Draws
1
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 2, Santa Clara have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 1-0 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara?
Pacos Ferreira have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacos Ferreira see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 43%, Santa Clara 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Pacos Ferreira) and 71% (Santa Clara). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 57% of games; Santa Clara in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Santa Clara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Pacos Ferreira's games and 71% of Santa Clara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Pacos Ferreira's matches and 71% of Santa Clara's.
Do Pacos Ferreira and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Pacos Ferreira have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pacos Ferreira edge out Santa Clara 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacos Ferreira beat Santa Clara 2-1 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 1.29 xG and Santa Clara 1.18 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.70 / defence 1.15 against Santa Clara attack 0.75 / defence 1.68, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 38% | Draw 29% | Santa Clara 33%, with Pacos Ferreira to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 33%, Santa Clara 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Santa Clara's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacos Ferreira 0.93 PPG, Santa Clara 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacos Ferreira win broke the near-deadlock. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.