FC Porto 1-0 Chaves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Porto at 70% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Porto vs Chaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Chaves travel to Estádio Do Dragão to take on FC Porto in Primeira Liga (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Friday 29 December 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Porto stand at 7W 0D 3L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, FC Porto have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Chaves have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Chaves's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
FC Porto carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, FC Porto have won 2, Chaves 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2023, ended FC Porto 3–1 Chaves — a FC Porto win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Porto in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Chaves in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Porto 48% versus Chaves 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Porto 52% | Chaves 48%). Note also that Chaves surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while FC Porto recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Porto 2.23 xG and Chaves 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Porto attack 0.975 / defence 0.849 | Chaves attack 0.738 / defence 1.498. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.239. Chaves's defence rating of 1.498 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Porto's projected output up. Chaves's attack rating of 0.738 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from FC Porto's last 48 games and Chaves's last 48.
Result probabilities: FC Porto 70% | Draw 18% | Chaves 12%. Fair-value odds: FC Porto 1.42 | Draw 5.54 | Chaves 8.64. The model has a clear lean to FC Porto (70%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Porto are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Porto's last 10 home games and Chaves's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Porto 60% (last 10 home games) | Chaves 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Porto vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 15 | Venue: Estádio Do Dragão • Kick-off: Friday 29 December 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Porto 70% | Draw 18% | Chaves 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG FC Porto 2.23 / Chaves 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: FC Porto attack 0.975 / def 0.849 | Chaves attack 0.738 / def 1.498 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: FC Porto (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
FC Porto xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Chaves xG
48%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Porto vs Chaves FAQs
What time does FC Porto vs Chaves kick off?
FC Porto vs Chaves kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 29 December 2023 at Estádio Do Dragão.
What was the final score in FC Porto vs Chaves?
FC Porto 1 - 0 Chaves.
Where is FC Porto vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Dragão.
What competition is FC Porto vs Chaves part of?
FC Porto vs Chaves is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 15) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win FC Porto vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives FC Porto a 70% chance of winning, Chaves a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making FC Porto the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Porto and Chaves will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will FC Porto vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Porto's attack at 0.97x the league average against Chaves's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus FC Porto's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Porto's last 48 games and Chaves's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 1-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Porto Win
70%
1.42
18%
5.54
12%
8.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
FC Porto xG
Total xG
3.00
0.78
Chaves xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
8.64
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
11%
9.27
Win to Nil
32%
3.09
1%
80.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Porto vs Chaves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Porto vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are FC Porto and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for FC Porto and 0.78 for Chaves, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Porto vs Chaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, FC Porto have picked up 2.42 PPG on a 37W 5D 6L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Chaves's form line: 15W 11D 22L from 48 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, FC Porto are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chaves.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Porto have posted 2.52 PPG from their last 23 home games (19W 1D 3L).
On the road, Chaves have gone 6W 5D 12L from their last 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Porto come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Porto are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.06 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Porto
Blended
Chaves
Blended
FC Porto (Home) vs Chaves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Porto
Blended
Chaves
Blended
❓ FC Porto vs Chaves Form FAQs
What form are FC Porto and Chaves in coming into this match?
FC Porto have gone 37W 5D 6L in their last 48 games (2.42 PPG), while Chaves have gone 15W 11D 22L in their last 48 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Porto at home or Chaves away?
FC Porto's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Porto at home: 2.52 PPG; Chaves away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Porto or Chaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Chaves in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2022. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC Porto have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Sep 2022, when FC Porto won FC Porto 3-0 Chaves.
FC Porto's record when hosting Chaves specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
FC Porto
0
Draws
0
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Porto vs Chaves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Porto and Chaves?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Porto have won 4, Chaves have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Porto and Chaves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 May 2024: Chaves 0-3 FC Porto.
Who has won more matches between FC Porto and Chaves?
FC Porto have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Porto are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Chaves see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Porto 52%, Chaves 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (FC Porto) and 44% (Chaves).
On the defensive side: FC Porto keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Chaves in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Porto home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Porto vs Chaves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Porto and Chaves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of FC Porto's recent matches and 35% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Porto and Chaves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of FC Porto's recent games and 44% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Porto and Chaves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of FC Porto's recent matches and 56% of Chaves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Porto edge out Chaves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Porto beat Chaves 1-0 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 2.23 xG and Chaves 0.78 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Porto fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 0.97 / defence 0.85 against Chaves attack 0.74 / defence 1.50, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Porto 70% | Draw 18% | Chaves 12%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 52%, Chaves 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Porto's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chaves's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Porto (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Primeira Liga fixtures — matchday 15
All Primeira Liga fixtures →
More Portuguese football predictions →