Famalicao 1-2 Vitória SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Famalicao take on Vitória SC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Famalicao and Vitória SC meet at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 October 2021 at 21:15 UTC.
Current Form
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 0W 3D 4L from 7 games (0.43 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Famalicao have posted 0W 2D 1L at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vitória SC (all games): 1W 4D 2L across 7 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Vitória SC have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Vitória SC have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Vitória SC are the stronger side — 0.57 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.43). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Famalicao half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
Vitória SC half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 71% versus Vitória SC 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 57% | Vitória SC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 0.86 xG and Vitória SC 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.794 / defence 1.078 | Vitória SC attack 0.758 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.041 / away 1.126. Famalicao's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Famalicao games / 7 Vitória SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 28% | Draw 41% | Vitória SC 31%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 3.57 | Draw 2.44 | Vitória SC 3.23. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 67% | Vitória SC 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Vitória SC | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 28% | Draw 41% | Vitória SC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 39% | xG Famalicao 0.86 / Vitória SC 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.794 / def 1.078 | Vitória SC attack 0.758 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.041 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Vitória SC xG
39%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Vitória SC kick off?
Famalicao vs Vitória SC kicked off at 21:15 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Vitória SC?
Famalicao 1 - 2 Vitória SC.
Where is Famalicao vs Vitória SC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Vitória SC part of?
Famalicao vs Vitória SC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Vitória SC?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 28% chance of winning, Vitória SC a 31% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Vitória SC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Famalicao and Vitória SC will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Vitória SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Vitória SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Famalicao and Vitória SC in?
Famalicao (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Vitória SC (all comps): 1W-4D-2L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.86 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.79) and Vitória SC's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vitória SC's attack (0.76x) against Famalicao's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.60
41%
2.43
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Famalicao xG
Total xG
1.78
0.92
Vitória SC xG
3.60
28%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
13%
7.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 15.5 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Vitória SC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Vitória SC expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.92 for Vitória SC, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Vitória SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao come into this having played 7 games, going 0W 3D 4L for 0.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Vitória SC sit at 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Vitória SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vitória SC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Famalicao — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Famalicao's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitória SC have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 3D 0L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Vitória SC are on 1.00 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Famalicao have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Vitória SC in 29%.
Defensively: Vitória SC in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Early Season
Vitória SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Vitória SC in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 games (0.43 PPG), while Vitória SC have gone 1W 4D 2L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Vitória SC away?
Vitória SC's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 0.67 PPG; Vitória SC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Vitória SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Vitória SC in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Famalicao have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Vitória SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Famalicao
1
Draws
6
Vitória SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Vitória SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 3, Vitória SC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Vitória SC last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Vitória SC 1-2 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Vitória SC?
Vitória SC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Vitória SC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 67%, Vitória SC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Famalicao and 33% for Vitória SC.
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vitória SC in 67%; Famalicao have failed to score in 33% of games; Vitória SC in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Vitória SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Vitória SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Famalicao's recent matches and 33% of Vitória SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Vitória SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Famalicao's recent games and 33% of Vitória SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Vitória SC edge out Famalicao 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitória SC beat Famalicao 1-2 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 0.86 xG and Vitória SC 0.92 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vitória SC outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.79 / defence 1.08 against Vitória SC attack 0.76 / defence 1.04, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 28% | Draw 41% | Vitória SC 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Vitória SC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 57%, Vitória SC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Vitória SC's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitória SC arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitória SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.