Famalicao 1-1 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Famalicao face Boavista.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Famalicao and Boavista meet at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Primeira Liga (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Monday 4 March 2024 at 20:15 UK time.
Current Form
Famalicao's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Famalicao have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Famalicao are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Boavista have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Boavista away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Famalicao against 0.90 for Boavista. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Famalicao's last 10 home games and Boavista's last 10 away games) — Famalicao have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Boavista in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Famalicao, 1 for Boavista and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Famalicao 2–2 Boavista — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Famalicao half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Boavista half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 50% versus Boavista 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 50% | Boavista 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.53 xG and Boavista 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.940 / defence 1.113 | Boavista attack 0.878 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.268. Data: built from Famalicao's last 56 games and Boavista's last 57.
Result probabilities: Famalicao 44% | Draw 26% | Boavista 31%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.28 | Draw 3.90 | Boavista 3.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Famalicao at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Famalicao 60% (last 10 home games) | Boavista 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Monday 4 March 2024 at 20:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 44% | Draw 26% | Boavista 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Famalicao 1.53 / Boavista 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.940 / def 1.113 | Boavista attack 0.878 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Boavista xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Famalicao vs Boavista FAQs
What time does Famalicao vs Boavista kick off?
Famalicao vs Boavista kicked off at 20:15 UK time on Monday 4 March 2024 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Boavista?
Famalicao 1 - 1 Boavista.
Where is Famalicao vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Boavista part of?
Famalicao vs Boavista is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 44% chance of winning, Boavista a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Famalicao and Boavista will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Famalicao vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Famalicao's attack at 0.94x the league average against Boavista's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.88x) against Famalicao's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Famalicao's last 56 games and Boavista's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.90
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.77
1.24
Boavista xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
7%
15.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.9 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Famalicao vs Boavista Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.24 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Famalicao have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 19W 13D 24L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Boavista's form line: 17W 14D 25L from 56 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Famalicao against 1.16 for Boavista. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 27 home games (13W 4D 10L).
On the road, Boavista have gone 6W 4D 17L from their last 27 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.29 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 66%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Boavista
Blended
Famalicao (Home) vs Boavista (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Famalicao
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Famalicao vs Boavista Form FAQs
What form are Famalicao and Boavista in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 19W 13D 24L in their last 56 games (1.25 PPG), while Boavista have gone 17W 14D 25L in their last 56 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Boavista away?
Famalicao's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.59 PPG; Boavista away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Famalicao and Boavista, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 31 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Famalicao have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Famalicao won Famalicao 4-0 Boavista on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Famalicao
2
Draws
1
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Famalicao vs Boavista H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Boavista?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Famalicao have won 5, Boavista have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Boavista last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2025: Boavista 0-2 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Boavista?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 48%, Boavista 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Famalicao) and 63% (Boavista). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 26% of games; Boavista in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Famalicao vs Boavista Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Famalicao and Boavista matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Famalicao's games and 63% of Boavista's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Famalicao and Boavista matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Famalicao's matches and 63% of Boavista's.
Do Famalicao and Boavista matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Famalicao's recent matches and 63% of Boavista's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao and Boavista share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao and Boavista finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.53 xG and Boavista 1.24 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Boavista attack 0.88 / defence 1.04, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 44% | Draw 26% | Boavista 31%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 50%, Boavista 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Boavista's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.25 PPG, Boavista 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Boavista (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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