Famalicao vs Benfica – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Famalicao face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Famalicao welcome Benfica to Estadio Municipal de Famalicao. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Famalicao — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Famalicao have posted 6W 3D 1L at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Famalicao are significantly better at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Benfica's 2.20 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Famalicao's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Benfica have the better historical record — 6 wins from 10 previous contests against 2 for Famalicao.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Benfica have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Famalicao in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Benfica in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 38% versus Benfica 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 35% | Benfica 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 0.95 xG and Benfica 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.856 / defence 0.887 | Benfica attack 1.651 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.260. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.651 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Famalicao games / 37 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 19% | Draw 23% | Benfica 58%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Benfica 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 40% | Benfica 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 19% | Draw 23% | Benfica 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Famalicao 0.95 / Benfica 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.856 / def 0.887 | Benfica attack 1.651 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Benfica (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Benfica xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Benfica kick off?
Famalicao vs Benfica is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 11 April 2027 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
Where is Famalicao vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What competition is Famalicao vs Benfica part of?
Famalicao vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 19% chance of winning, Benfica a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Famalicao and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Benfica?
Record (10 meetings): Famalicao 2W | Draws 2 | Benfica 6W.
What form are Famalicao and Benfica in?
Famalicao (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Benfica (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.86) and Benfica's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
19%
5.23
23%
4.44
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.80
1.85
Benfica xG
5.23
19%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
3%
33.13
22%
4.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 11.2 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.85 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Famalicao have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 14W 13D 10L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benfica's form line: 25W 12D 0L from 37 games, 2.35 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Famalicao.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
On the road, Benfica have gone 13W 5D 0L from 18 away games — 2.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Famalicao are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.30 scored and 0.76 conceded. Benfica's attacking output running into Famalicao's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Benfica in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Early Season
Benfica
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Benfica in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 14W 13D 10L in their last 37 games (1.49 PPG), while Benfica have gone 25W 12D 0L in their last 37 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.61 PPG; Benfica away: 2.44 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Benfica in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Famalicao and Benfica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Benfica won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Famalicao's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Famalicao
2
Draws
6
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, Benfica have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Famalicao 2-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 39%, Benfica 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Famalicao) and 72% (Benfica). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Benfica in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Famalicao's recent matches and 56% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Famalicao's matches and 72% of Benfica's.
Do Famalicao and Benfica tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Benfica in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.