Famalicao 2-0 Benfica – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Famalicao at 38%, yet in-form Benfica provide a compelling counter-argument — this Famalicao vs Benfica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Famalicao welcome Benfica to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Famalicao — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Famalicao haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Famalicao have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Benfica haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Benfica's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Benfica's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Famalicao's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Benfica have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Famalicao.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Famalicao winning.
It is worth noting that Benfica have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Famalicao in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Benfica in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 53% versus Benfica 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 44% | Benfica 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.39 xG and Benfica 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.974 / defence 0.985 | Benfica attack 1.025 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.331. Data: 34 Famalicao games / 34 Benfica games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Famalicao 38% | Draw 26% | Benfica 36%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Benfica 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Famalicao at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Benfica (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Famalicao offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 70% | Benfica 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 38% | Draw 26% | Benfica 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Famalicao 1.39 / Benfica 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.974 / def 0.985 | Benfica attack 1.025 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Benfica xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Benfica kick off?
Famalicao vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Benfica?
Famalicao 2 - 0 Benfica.
Where is Famalicao vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Benfica part of?
Famalicao vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 38% chance of winning, Benfica a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Famalicao and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Benfica?
Record (6 meetings): Famalicao 1W | Draws 1 | Benfica 4W.
What form are Famalicao and Benfica in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Famalicao (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.97) and Benfica's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
38%
2.62
26%
3.90
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.73
1.34
Benfica xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
10%
10.06
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.34 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Famalicao have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 10W 12D 12L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. Famalicao haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Benfica's form line: 25W 5D 4L from 34 games, 2.35 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. Benfica haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Famalicao.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 1.41 PPG from 17 outings (6W 6D 5L).
On the road, Benfica have gone 10W 3D 4L from 17 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Benfica's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Famalicao are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.26 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Pre-Season
Benfica
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Benfica in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 10W 12D 12L in their last 34 games (1.24 PPG), while Benfica have gone 25W 5D 4L in their last 34 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.41 PPG; Benfica away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Benfica in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Famalicao and Benfica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Benfica won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Famalicao's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Famalicao
2
Draws
6
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, Benfica have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Famalicao 2-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 59%, Benfica 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Famalicao) and 59% (Benfica). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Benfica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Famalicao's games and 53% of Benfica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Famalicao vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Famalicao's matches and 59% of Benfica's.
Do Famalicao and Benfica tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Benfica in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Benfica.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Benfica 2-0 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.39 xG and Benfica 1.34 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Benfica landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against Benfica attack 1.02 / defence 0.97, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 38% | Draw 26% | Benfica 36%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 44%, Benfica 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Benfica's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Famalicao winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.