Famalicao 1-0 Belenenses – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Belenenses fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Belenenses travel to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho to take on Famalicao. The game is scheduled for Thursday 13 January 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Famalicao stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's home record at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho: 0W 3D 4L from 7 Primeira Liga appearances (0.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Belenenses have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Belenenses, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Belenenses have posted 0W 3D 5L from 8 away outings — 0.38 PPG. Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Famalicao) versus 0.80 (Belenenses). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Famalicao in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Belenenses in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 69% versus Belenenses 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 69% | Belenenses 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.01 xG and Belenenses 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.722 / defence 1.323 | Belenenses attack 0.464 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.421. Famalicao's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Belenenses bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Famalicao's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Famalicao games / 16 Belenenses games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 37% | Draw 33% | Belenenses 30%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Belenenses 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Famalicao at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Famalicao offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 71% | Belenenses 12% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Belenenses | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Thursday 13 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 37% | Draw 33% | Belenenses 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Famalicao 1.01 / Belenenses 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.722 / def 1.323 | Belenenses attack 0.464 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Belenenses xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Belenenses kick off?
Famalicao vs Belenenses kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 13 January 2022 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Belenenses?
Famalicao 1 - 0 Belenenses.
Where is Famalicao vs Belenenses being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Belenenses part of?
Famalicao vs Belenenses is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Belenenses?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 37% chance of winning, Belenenses a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Belenenses?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Famalicao and Belenenses will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Belenenses have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Belenenses?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Famalicao and Belenenses in?
Famalicao (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Belenenses (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Belenenses's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Belenenses's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
37%
2.69
33%
3.04
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Famalicao xG
Total xG
1.88
0.87
Belenenses xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Belenenses?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Belenenses expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.87 for Belenenses, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Belenenses?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Famalicao come into this having played 16 games, going 2W 6D 8L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Belenenses sit at 0.69 PPG from 16 outings (2W 5D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Belenenses is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Famalicao on 0.75 PPG, Belenenses on 0.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Famalicao's home form reads 0W 3D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Belenenses have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (0W 3D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Famalicao are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Belenenses are on 0.56 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Famalicao have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Belenenses
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Belenenses in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 2W 6D 8L in their last 16 games (0.75 PPG), while Belenenses have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Belenenses away?
Famalicao's home record (0.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 0.43 PPG; Belenenses away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Famalicao
0
Draws
0
Belenenses
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Belenenses?
From 2 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, Belenenses have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Belenenses last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2022, when Belenenses 2-3 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Belenenses?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 71%, Belenenses 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Famalicao) and 14% (Belenenses).
On the defensive side: Famalicao have failed to score in 29% of games; Belenenses in 86%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Belenenses away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Belenenses?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Famalicao's recent matches and 14% of Belenenses's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Belenenses usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Famalicao's recent games and 14% of Belenenses's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Belenenses tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Belenenses in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Belenenses 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Belenenses 1-0 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.01 xG and Belenenses 0.87 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Belenenses landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.72 / defence 1.32 against Belenenses attack 0.46 / defence 1.21, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 37% | Draw 33% | Belenenses 30%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 69%, Belenenses 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Belenenses's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 0.75 PPG, Belenenses 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.