Famalicao 0-0 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Famalicao at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs Arouca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arouca make the trip to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho to face Famalicao in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Famalicao have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's home record at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Arouca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Famalicao. A 0.90 PPG lead over Arouca (1.60 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Arouca, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2024, ended 2–3 with Arouca winning.
It is worth noting that Arouca have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Arouca — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 50% versus Arouca 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 43% | Arouca 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.51 xG and Arouca 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.785 / defence 0.912 | Arouca attack 0.863 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.164. Famalicao's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Arouca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing Famalicao's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Famalicao games / 44 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 51% | Draw 26% | Arouca 23%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Arouca 4.35. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Arouca lead the H2H ledger, but Famalicao carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 40% | Arouca 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 51% | Draw 26% | Arouca 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Famalicao 1.51 / Arouca 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.785 / def 0.912 | Arouca attack 0.863 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Arouca xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Arouca kick off?
Famalicao vs Arouca kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Arouca?
Famalicao 0 - 0 Arouca.
Where is Famalicao vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Arouca part of?
Famalicao vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 51% chance of winning, Arouca a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Famalicao and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Arouca?
Record (6 meetings): Famalicao 1W | Draws 1 | Arouca 4W.
What form are Famalicao and Arouca in?
Famalicao (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Arouca (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Famalicao vs Arouca?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.86x) against Famalicao's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.84
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.42
0.92
Arouca xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
5%
19.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.92 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 14W 16D 14L from 44 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 21L across 44 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Famalicao against 1.20 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 8W 8D 6L from 22 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 7W 4D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.36 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Arouca in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 14W 16D 14L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Arouca have gone 15W 8D 21L in their last 44 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Arouca away?
Famalicao's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.45 PPG; Arouca away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 4-1 on 10 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Famalicao
3
Draws
4
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Arouca?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 3, Arouca have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Famalicao 1-0 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 50%, Arouca 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Famalicao) and 64% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 27% of games; Arouca in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Famalicao's recent matches and 54% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Famalicao's recent games and 64% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Arouca tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Arouca in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Famalicao's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 11, as Famalicao and Arouca drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.51 xG and Arouca 0.92 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Famalicao fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Arouca landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.79 / defence 0.91 against Arouca attack 0.86 / defence 1.34, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 51% | Draw 26% | Arouca 23%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 43%, Arouca 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arouca's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.32 PPG, Arouca 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.