Estoril 1-2 Rio Ave – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Estoril at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estoril vs Rio Ave encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Estoril and Rio Ave meet at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Primeira Liga (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 15:30 UK time.

Current Form

Estoril's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Estoril have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Rio Ave have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Rio Ave's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Estoril's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Rio Ave's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Estoril, 1 for Rio Ave and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Estoril 4–0 Rio Ave — a Estoril win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Estoril goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Rio Ave goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 55% versus Rio Ave 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 68% | Rio Ave 55%). Note also that Rio Ave surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Estoril recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 2.00 xG and Rio Ave 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.202 / defence 1.105 | Rio Ave attack 0.842 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.127. Data: built from Estoril's last 60 games and Rio Ave's last 60.

Result probabilities: Estoril 59% | Draw 21% | Rio Ave 19%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 1.68 | Draw 4.69 | Rio Ave 5.18. The model has a clear lean to Estoril (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Estoril's last 10 home games and Rio Ave's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estoril 70% (last 10 home games) | Rio Ave 40% (last 10 away games).

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