Estrela 4-0 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Estrela at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estrela vs Casa Pia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Gomes plays host to Estrela versus Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Friday 20 March 2026 at 20:15 UTC.
Form
Estrela (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estrela's home record at Estádio José Gomes: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Estrela are significantly better at Estádio José Gomes than their overall form suggests.
Casa Pia have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Estrela against 1.10 for Casa Pia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Estrela lead 3W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 5–3 with Estrela winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Estrela half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 39% versus Casa Pia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 42% | Casa Pia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.21 xG and Casa Pia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.845 / defence 1.291 | Casa Pia attack 0.698 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.173. Data: 60 Estrela games / 59 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estrela 39% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 32%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Casa Pia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estrela as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estrela if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estrela 50% | Casa Pia 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Friday 20 Mar 2026, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 39% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Estrela 1.21 / Casa Pia 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 0.845 / def 1.291 | Casa Pia attack 0.698 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Estrela (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Casa Pia xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs Casa Pia kick off?
Estrela vs Casa Pia kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 20 March 2026 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Estrela 4 - 0 Casa Pia.
Where is Estrela vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Casa Pia part of?
Estrela vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 39% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Estrela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Estrela and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Casa Pia?
Record (5 meetings): Estrela 3W | Draws 0 | Casa Pia 2W.
What form are Estrela and Casa Pia in?
Estrela (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Estrela's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Casa Pia's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.70x) against Estrela's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estrela Win
39%
2.54
29%
3.44
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.27
1.06
Casa Pia xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Estrela and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Estrela and 1.06 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Estrela have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 12W 17D 30L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Casa Pia's form line: 17W 18D 24L from 59 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Estrela against 1.17 for Casa Pia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Estrela have posted 1.10 PPG from 30 outings (8W 9D 13L).
On the road, Casa Pia have gone 7W 8D 15L from 30 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estrela are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.10 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estrela and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 12W 17D 30L in their last 59 games (0.90 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 17W 18D 24L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Casa Pia away?
Estrela's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.10 PPG; Casa Pia away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Estrela go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estrela won 4-0 on 20 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estrela have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Estrela
0
Draws
2
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Casa Pia?
From 6 meetings on record, Estrela have won 4, Casa Pia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Estrela 4-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and Casa Pia?
Estrela have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 43%, Casa Pia 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Estrela) and 50% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Estrela have failed to score in 40% of games; Casa Pia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estrela play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Estrela's recent matches and 43% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estrela vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Estrela's recent games and 50% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estrela and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Estrela have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Estrela run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estrela beat Casa Pia 4-0 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.21 xG and Casa Pia 1.06 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Estrela beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Casa Pia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.84 / defence 1.29 against Casa Pia attack 0.70 / defence 0.96, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 39% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 32%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 42%, Casa Pia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Casa Pia's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estrela 0.90 PPG, Casa Pia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estrela win broke the near-deadlock. Estrela (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.