Estoril 1-3 Benfica – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Benfica (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Estoril face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Estoril welcome Benfica to Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota in Primeira Liga (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 16 May 2026 at 21:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Estoril stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Estoril have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Estoril are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Benfica — last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Estoril's last 10 home games and Benfica's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Benfica have the better record in our head-to-head data — 8 wins from 8 H2H matches against 0 for Estoril.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Jan 2026, ended Estoril 1–3 Benfica — a Benfica win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Benfica have won 8 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Estoril trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Benfica trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 57% versus Benfica 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Estoril 66% | Benfica 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.15 xG and Benfica 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.017 / defence 1.215 | Benfica attack 1.330 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.136. Benfica bring a tight defence (rating 0.775, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Estoril's projected output down. Benfica have an above-average attack rating of 1.330, which lifts their away xG to 1.84. Estoril's defence rating of 1.215 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Benfica's projected output up. Data: built from Estoril's last 67 games and Benfica's last 67.
Result probabilities: Estoril 24% | Draw 23% | Benfica 53%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 4.22 | Draw 4.38 | Benfica 1.87. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Estoril's last 10 home games and Benfica's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estoril 70% (last 10 home games) | Benfica 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 34 | Venue: Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 24% | Draw 23% | Benfica 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Estoril 1.15 / Benfica 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 1.017 / def 1.215 | Benfica attack 1.330 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Benfica (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Benfica xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estoril vs Benfica FAQs
What time does Estoril vs Benfica kick off?
Estoril vs Benfica kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Benfica?
Estoril 1 - 3 Benfica.
Where is Estoril vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Benfica part of?
Estoril vs Benfica is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 34) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 24% chance of winning, Benfica a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Estoril and Benfica will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Estoril vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Estoril's attack rating (1.02) and Benfica's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Estoril's last 67 games and Benfica's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
24%
4.22
23%
4.38
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.98
1.84
Benfica xG
4.22
24%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
4%
26.50
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estoril vs Benfica Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Estoril and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Estoril and 1.84 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estoril's recent record stands at 22W 19D 26L from 67 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 47W 16D 4L across 67 games — 2.34 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estoril heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 13W 9D 11L from their last 33 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 22W 8D 3L across their last 33 away games, a 2.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estoril are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.31 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Current Season
Benfica
Current Season
Estoril (Home) vs Benfica (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estoril
Current Season
Benfica
Current Season
❓ Estoril vs Benfica Form FAQs
What form are Estoril and Benfica in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 22W 19D 26L in their last 67 games (1.27 PPG), while Benfica have gone 47W 16D 4L in their last 67 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.45 PPG; Benfica away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Estoril or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Benfica in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 31 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Benfica have taken the most recent 10 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Nov 2022, when Benfica won Estoril 1-5 Benfica.
Estoril's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Estoril
0
Draws
10
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Estoril vs Benfica H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Benfica?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Estoril have won 0, Benfica have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Benfica last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2026: Benfica 2-1 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 61%, Benfica 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Estoril and 61% for Benfica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica in 39%; Estoril have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estoril vs Benfica Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estoril and Benfica matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Estoril's games and 54% of Benfica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Estoril and Benfica matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Estoril's matches and 61% of Benfica's.
Do Estoril and Benfica matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Estoril's recent matches and 73% of Benfica's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Estoril 1-3 at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.15 xG and Benfica 1.84 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 1.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.02 / defence 1.22 against Benfica attack 1.33 / defence 0.78, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 24% | Draw 23% | Benfica 53%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 66%, Benfica 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Benfica's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Primeira Liga fixtures — matchday 34
All Primeira Liga fixtures →
More Portuguese football predictions →