Famalicao 1-0 Alverca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Alverca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal de Famalicao plays host to Famalicao versus Alverca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Famalicao have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Famalicao's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
Alverca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Alverca's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Famalicao's favour (1.80 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Famalicao lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Alverca winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Alverca — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 36% versus Alverca 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 39% | Alverca 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.73 xG and Alverca 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 1.079 / defence 0.868 | Alverca attack 0.814 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.136. Data: 67 Famalicao games / 33 Alverca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 59% | Draw 23% | Alverca 17%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Alverca 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Famalicao (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 50% | Alverca 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Alverca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 59% | Draw 23% | Alverca 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Famalicao 1.73 / Alverca 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 1.079 / def 0.868 | Alverca attack 0.814 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Alverca xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Alverca kick off?
Famalicao vs Alverca kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Alverca?
Famalicao 1 - 0 Alverca.
Where is Famalicao vs Alverca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What competition is Famalicao vs Alverca part of?
Famalicao vs Alverca is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Alverca?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 59% chance of winning, Alverca a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Alverca?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Famalicao and Alverca will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Alverca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Alverca?
Record (1 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 0 | Alverca 1W.
What form are Famalicao and Alverca in?
Famalicao (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Alverca (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Famalicao's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Alverca's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Alverca's attack (0.81x) against Famalicao's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 67/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
59%
1.68
23%
4.26
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.53
0.80
Alverca xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
3%
32.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Alverca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Alverca expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.80 for Alverca, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Alverca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 14W 11D 8L from 33 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Alverca, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 14L across 33 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Famalicao by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alverca heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 8W 4D 4L from 16 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alverca's away record stands at 3W 4D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Alverca are on 1.06 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Current Season
Alverca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Alverca in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 14W 11D 8L in their last 33 games (1.61 PPG), while Alverca have gone 10W 9D 14L in their last 33 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Alverca away?
Famalicao's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.75 PPG; Alverca away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Alverca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Alverca in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Famalicao
0
Draws
1
Alverca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Alverca?
From 2 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 1, Alverca have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Alverca last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Famalicao 1-0 Alverca.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Alverca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 38%, Alverca 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Famalicao) and 56% (Alverca).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Alverca in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Alverca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Alverca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Famalicao's recent matches and 62% of Alverca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Alverca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Famalicao's recent games and 56% of Alverca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Alverca tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Alverca in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Alverca 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Alverca 1-0 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.73 xG and Alverca 0.80 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alverca landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.08 / defence 0.87 against Alverca attack 0.81 / defence 1.10, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 59% | Draw 23% | Alverca 17%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 39%, Alverca 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Alverca's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Famalicao arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Alverca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.