Casa Pia 0-2 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Santa Clara travel to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to take on Casa Pia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Casa Pia have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Casa Pia have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Casa Pia have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Santa Clara — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Santa Clara have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Casa Pia) versus 1.50 (Santa Clara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Casa Pia, 0 for Santa Clara and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with Casa Pia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.12 xG and Santa Clara 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.746 / defence 0.921 | Santa Clara attack 1.209 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.410. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Santa Clara have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Casa Pia games / 2 Santa Clara games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 27% | Draw 25% | Santa Clara 48%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Santa Clara 2.08. Santa Clara hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Santa Clara as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 27% | Draw 25% | Santa Clara 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Casa Pia 1.12 / Santa Clara 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.746 / def 0.921 | Santa Clara attack 1.209 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Santa Clara xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Santa Clara kick off?
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Casa Pia 0 - 2 Santa Clara.
Where is Casa Pia vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Santa Clara part of?
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 27% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Casa Pia and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Santa Clara?
Record (2 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 1 | Santa Clara 0W.
What form are Casa Pia and Santa Clara in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Santa Clara (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Casa Pia's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Santa Clara's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
27%
3.67
25%
3.98
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.69
1.57
Santa Clara xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
6%
17.65
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.57 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Casa Pia come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L. It's still early in the season for Casa Pia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Santa Clara sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Santa Clara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Santa Clara carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Casa Pia have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Early Season
Santa Clara
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Casa Pia's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
2
Draws
3
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Santa Clara?
From 6 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, Santa Clara have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Casa Pia 0-0 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Santa Clara?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 50% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Casa Pia's recent games and 50% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Santa Clara cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Casa Pia 0-2 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.12 xG and Santa Clara 1.57 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Casa Pia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.75 / defence 0.92 against Santa Clara attack 1.21 / defence 1.08, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 27% | Draw 25% | Santa Clara 48%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 50%, Santa Clara 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Santa Clara conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.