Boavista 0-1 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SC Braga (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Boavista face SC Braga.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Boavista host SC Braga at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Boavista — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Boavista have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Boavista have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Boavista are significantly better at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Braga stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Braga have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, SC Braga have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Braga — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, SC Braga have the better historical record — 3 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Boavista.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2024, ended 0–4 with SC Braga winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Braga have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Boavista trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
SC Braga trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Boavista 66% and SC Braga 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 51% | SC Braga 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.41 xG and SC Braga 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.926 / defence 1.058 | SC Braga attack 1.170 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.352. Data: 35 Boavista games / 35 SC Braga games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Boavista 32% | Draw 24% | SC Braga 44%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | SC Braga 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Braga as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Boavista 70% | SC Braga 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 32% | Draw 24% | SC Braga 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Boavista 1.41 / SC Braga 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.926 / def 1.058 | SC Braga attack 1.170 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.67
SC Braga xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs SC Braga kick off?
Boavista vs SC Braga kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs SC Braga?
Boavista 0 - 1 SC Braga.
Where is Boavista vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs SC Braga part of?
Boavista vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 32% chance of winning, SC Braga a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Boavista and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and SC Braga?
Record (6 meetings): Boavista 0W | Draws 3 | SC Braga 3W.
What form are Boavista and SC Braga in?
Boavista (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. SC Braga (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Boavista's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against SC Braga's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Boavista's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
32%
3.08
24%
4.22
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Boavista xG
Total xG
3.08
1.67
SC Braga xG
3.08
32%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
6%
16.42
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Boavista and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Boavista and 1.67 for SC Braga, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Boavista's recent record stands at 8W 11D 16L from 35 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Boavista, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Braga, meanwhile, have gone 21W 6D 8L across 35 games — 1.97 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Braga, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Braga by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Boavista heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Boavista have managed 4W 8D 5L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Braga's away record stands at 11W 2D 4L across 17 trips, a 2.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Boavista are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 2.06 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; SC Braga in 69%.
Last 35 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Early Season
SC Braga
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 8W 11D 16L in their last 35 games (1.00 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 21W 6D 8L in their last 35 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.18 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
SC Braga go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2024, when SC Braga won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Boavista's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Boavista
3
Draws
5
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and SC Braga?
From 8 meetings on record, Boavista have won 0, SC Braga have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when SC Braga 3-0 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Boavista at 71%, SC Braga at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Boavista and 76% for SC Braga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play SC Braga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Boavista's games and 65% of SC Braga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boavista vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Boavista's matches and 76% of SC Braga's.
Do Boavista and SC Braga tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Boavista 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Boavista 0-1 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.41 xG and SC Braga 1.67 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Boavista fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against SC Braga attack 1.17 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 32% | Draw 24% | SC Braga 44%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 51%, SC Braga 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Boavista (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.