Benfica vs Maritimo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Maritimo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Maritimo travel to to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's home record at : 7W 3D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Maritimo have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo's away record: 1W 1D 3L from 5 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Benfica register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Maritimo in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Benfica hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Maritimo, with 0 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 3–0 with Benfica winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Benfica and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Maritimo trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 50% versus Maritimo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Benfica 80% | Maritimo 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.57 xG and Maritimo 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.263 / defence 0.770 | Maritimo attack 0.813 / defence 1.600. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.315. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 2.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.600 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Benfica's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Benfica games / 10 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 75% | Draw 15% | Maritimo 10%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.33 | Draw 6.67 | Maritimo 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 60% | Maritimo 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 75% | Draw 15% | Maritimo 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 52% | xG Benfica 2.57 / Maritimo 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.263 / def 0.770 | Maritimo attack 0.813 / def 1.600 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Benfica (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.57
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Maritimo xG
52%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Maritimo kick off?
Benfica vs Maritimo is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027.
What competition is Benfica vs Maritimo part of?
Benfica vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 75% chance of winning, Maritimo a 10% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Benfica and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Maritimo?
Record (5 meetings): Benfica 5W | Draws 0 | Maritimo 0W.
What form are Benfica and Maritimo in?
Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Maritimo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.26x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.60x — combine the two and it projects 2.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Maritimo's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
75%
1.33
15%
6.57
10%
10.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.57
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.40
0.82
Maritimo xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.57
15%
Draw
10.29
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
8%
13.11
Win to Nil
33%
3.03
1%
134.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Benfica and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Benfica and 0.82 for Maritimo, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Maritimo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Benfica have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 8W 1D 1L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Maritimo's form line: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Maritimo.
Venue Form
On home soil, Benfica have posted 2.60 PPG from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L).
On the road, Maritimo have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 0.90 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo in 60%.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 games (2.50 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Maritimo away?
Benfica's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.60 PPG; Maritimo away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Benfica or Maritimo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Maritimo in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Benfica won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Maritimo specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
5
Benfica
0
Draws
0
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Maritimo?
From 5 meetings on record, Benfica have won 5, Maritimo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Maritimo 0-3 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Maritimo?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benfica at 60%, Maritimo at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Benfica and 80% for Maritimo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Benfica's games and 80% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Benfica's matches and 80% of Maritimo's.
Do Benfica and Maritimo tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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