Benfica 4-1 FC Porto – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benfica at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benfica vs FC Porto fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Benfica welcome FC Porto to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 20:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Benfica are significantly better at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Porto stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for FC Porto, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Porto away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Benfica) versus 2.70 (FC Porto). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Benfica, 4 for FC Porto and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 0–5 with FC Porto winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Benfica in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
FC Porto in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 46% versus FC Porto 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 63% | FC Porto 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.67 xG and FC Porto 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.696 / defence 0.744 | FC Porto attack 1.507 / defence 0.695. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.166. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.696 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Porto's defence strength of 0.695 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. FC Porto have an above-average attack strength of 1.507 — the away xG of 1.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Benfica's defence rating of 0.744 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Benfica games / 44 FC Porto games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 46% | Draw 24% | FC Porto 30%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | FC Porto 3.33. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Benfica 40% | FC Porto 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs FC Porto | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 20:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 46% | Draw 24% | FC Porto 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Benfica 1.67 / FC Porto 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.696 / def 0.744 | FC Porto attack 1.507 / def 0.695 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Benfica (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.31
FC Porto xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs FC Porto kick off?
Benfica vs FC Porto kicked off at 20:45 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs FC Porto?
Benfica 4 - 1 FC Porto.
Where is Benfica vs FC Porto being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs FC Porto part of?
Benfica vs FC Porto is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs FC Porto?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 46% chance of winning, FC Porto a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs FC Porto?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Benfica and FC Porto will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs FC Porto have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and FC Porto?
Record (6 meetings): Benfica 2W | Draws 0 | FC Porto 4W.
What form are Benfica and FC Porto in?
Benfica (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. FC Porto (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Benfica vs FC Porto?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Benfica's attacking strength (1.70x league average) is weighed against FC Porto's defensive record (0.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, FC Porto's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
46%
2.17
24%
4.18
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.98
1.31
FC Porto xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
6%
17.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs FC Porto?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Benfica and FC Porto expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Benfica and 1.31 for FC Porto, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs FC Porto?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benfica come into this having played 43 games, going 32W 6D 5L for 2.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Porto sit at 2.23 PPG from 43 outings (30W 6D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Porto is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benfica on 2.37 PPG, FC Porto on 2.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Benfica's home form reads 18W 2D 0L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.37 PPG overall — Benfica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Porto have taken 2.05 points per game from 20 outings (13W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benfica are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; FC Porto are on 2.05 scored and 0.70 conceded. Benfica's scoring rate against FC Porto's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; FC Porto in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
FC Porto
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and FC Porto in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 32W 6D 5L in their last 43 games (2.37 PPG), while FC Porto have gone 30W 6D 7L in their last 43 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or FC Porto away?
Benfica's home record (2.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.80 PPG; FC Porto away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Benfica or FC Porto been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, FC Porto in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benfica and FC Porto runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Mar 2024, when FC Porto won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting FC Porto specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Benfica
2
Draws
4
FC Porto
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and FC Porto?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 4, FC Porto have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and FC Porto last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Benfica 2-2 FC Porto.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
FC Porto are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 45%, FC Porto 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Benfica and 50% for FC Porto. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; FC Porto in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / FC Porto away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play FC Porto?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Benfica's recent matches and 35% of FC Porto's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs FC Porto usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Benfica's matches and 50% of FC Porto's.
Do Benfica and FC Porto tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC Porto in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC Porto.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat FC Porto 4-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.67 xG and FC Porto 1.31 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.70 / defence 0.74 against FC Porto attack 1.51 / defence 0.69, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 46% | Draw 24% | FC Porto 30%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 63%, FC Porto 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Porto's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benfica 2.37 PPG, FC Porto 2.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benfica win broke the near-deadlock. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm. FC Porto (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.