Benfica 4-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Famalicao.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Famalicao travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 January 2025, 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Benfica are significantly better at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica than their overall form suggests.
Famalicao — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Famalicao have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Benfica have won 4, Famalicao 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Famalicao winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Famalicao trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 45% versus Famalicao 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 59% | Famalicao 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.30 xG and Famalicao 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.568 / defence 0.751 | Famalicao attack 1.118 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.184. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.568 — their λ of 2.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Benfica games / 51 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 66% | Draw 20% | Famalicao 14%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Famalicao 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 40% | Famalicao 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jan 2025, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 66% | Draw 20% | Famalicao 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 57% | xG Benfica 2.30 / Famalicao 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.568 / def 0.751 | Famalicao attack 1.118 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Benfica (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Famalicao xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Famalicao kick off?
Benfica vs Famalicao kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 17 January 2025 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Famalicao?
Benfica 4 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is Benfica vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Famalicao part of?
Benfica vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 66% chance of winning, Famalicao a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Benfica and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Famalicao?
Record (7 meetings): Benfica 4W | Draws 1 | Famalicao 2W.
What form are Benfica and Famalicao in?
Benfica (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Famalicao (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.57x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 2.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Famalicao's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
66%
1.52
20%
5.08
14%
6.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.29
0.99
Famalicao xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
6.98
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
10%
9.93
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
1%
69.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Benfica and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Benfica and 0.99 for Famalicao, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Famalicao?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benfica come into this having played 51 games, going 37W 7D 7L for 2.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.22 PPG from 51 outings (14W 20D 17L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Famalicao — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Benfica's home form reads 22W 2D 1L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.72 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.31 PPG overall — Benfica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 1.12 points per game from 25 outings (6W 10D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.12 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 37W 7D 7L in their last 51 games (2.31 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 14W 20D 17L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Famalicao away?
Benfica's home record (2.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.72 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Benfica or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Famalicao in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Benfica won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Famalicao specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Benfica
2
Draws
2
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Famalicao?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 6, Famalicao have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Famalicao 2-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Famalicao?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 44%, Famalicao 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Benfica) and 44% (Famalicao). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Famalicao in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Benfica's recent matches and 56% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Benfica's matches and 44% of Famalicao's.
Do Benfica and Famalicao tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Famalicao.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Famalicao 4-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.30 xG and Famalicao 0.99 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Famalicao landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.57 / defence 0.75 against Famalicao attack 1.12 / defence 1.06, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 66% | Draw 20% | Famalicao 14%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 59%, Famalicao 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Famalicao's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.92 average — above their attacking norm. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.