Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zaglebie Lubin face Widzew Łódź.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host Widzew Łódź at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Zaglebie Lubin's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Widzew Łódź's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 1 for Widzew Łódź and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended Zaglebie Lubin 2–0 Widzew Łódź — a Zaglebie Lubin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 45% versus Widzew Łódź 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 47% | Widzew Łódź 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.44 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.929 / defence 0.928 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.034 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.198. Data: built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 48 games and Widzew Łódź's last 47.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 43% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 29%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.33 | Draw 3.59 | Widzew Łódź 3.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zaglebie Lubin 40% (last 10 home games) | Widzew Łódź 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 43% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.44 / Widzew Łódź 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.929 / def 0.928 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.034 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Widzew Łódź xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź FAQs
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 15) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 43% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Widzew Łódź's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 48 games and Widzew Łódź's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.59
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.59
1.15
Widzew Łódź xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
7%
14.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.15 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Zaglebie Lubin have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 18W 10D 19L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 15W 11D 21L from 47 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.36 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 1.30 PPG from their last 23 home games (8W 6D 9L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 6W 8D 9L from their last 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.13 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin (Home) vs Widzew Łódź (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź Form FAQs
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 18W 10D 19L in their last 47 games (1.36 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 15W 11D 21L in their last 47 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.30 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 6 December 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Oct 2022, when Widzew Łódź won Widzew Łódź 3-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Zaglebie Lubin have won 4, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 December 2025: Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 48%, Widzew Łódź 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Zaglebie Lubin and 39% for Widzew Łódź.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 30%; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 30% of games; Widzew Łódź in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 52% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 39% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 61% of Widzew Łódź's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 15, as Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.44 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.15 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.03 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 43% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 29%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 47%, Widzew Łódź 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.36 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.