Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 15 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Raków Częstochowa to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Pogon Szczecin) versus 2.20 (Raków Częstochowa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pogon Szczecin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Raków Częstochowa in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Raków Częstochowa have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Pogon Szczecin.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 55% versus Raków Częstochowa 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 57% | Raków Częstochowa 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.42 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.320 / defence 1.110 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.259 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.196. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Raków Częstochowa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Raków Częstochowa have an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Pogon Szczecin games / 47 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 21% | Raków Częstochowa 26%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | Raków Częstochowa 3.85. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.09. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.09 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.09 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Raków Częstochowa 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 21% | Raków Częstochowa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 75% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.42 / Raków Częstochowa 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.320 / def 1.110 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.259 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Raków Częstochowa xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 54% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (4 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 0W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 3W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.32x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 2.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.7%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
54%
1.86
21%
4.88
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
4.09
1.67
Raków Częstochowa xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.88
21%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.93
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
9%
11.19
Win to Nil
10%
9.90
2%
43.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.67 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 4.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 24W 10D 13L from 47 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 31W 8D 8L across 47 games — 2.15 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pogon Szczecin heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 12W 4D 6L from 22 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 11W 4D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Raków Częstochowa's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.96 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 24W 10D 13L in their last 47 games (1.74 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 31W 8D 8L in their last 47 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.82 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
6
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, Raków Częstochowa have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 64%, Raków Częstochowa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Pogon Szczecin and 59% for Raków Częstochowa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 32%; Raków Częstochowa in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 54% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 59% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.42 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.67 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.32 / defence 1.11 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.26 / defence 1.22, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 21% | Raków Częstochowa 26%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 57%, Raków Częstochowa 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.