Zaglebie Lubin 3-0 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin plays host to Zaglebie Lubin versus Slask Wroclaw in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Monday 4 November 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Zaglebie Lubin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin than their overall form suggests.
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Zaglebie Lubin 2W, Slask Wroclaw 2W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Slask Wroclaw half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 50% versus Slask Wroclaw 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Slask Wroclaw 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.20 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.810 / defence 0.969 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.803 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.190. Data: 47 Zaglebie Lubin games / 46 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 42% | Draw 29% | Slask Wroclaw 28%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Slask Wroclaw 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 50% | Slask Wroclaw 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Monday 4 Nov 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 42% | Draw 29% | Slask Wroclaw 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.20 / Slask Wroclaw 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.810 / def 0.969 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.803 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Slask Wroclaw xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 4 November 2024 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Zaglebie Lubin 3 - 0 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 42% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (6 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 2W | Draws 2 | Slask Wroclaw 2W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 0.81x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.80x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
42%
2.37
29%
3.40
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.12
0.93
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.93 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 16W 11D 19L from 46 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 12L across 46 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.57 for Slask Wroclaw. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 9W 6D 7L from 22 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 9W 6D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.33 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 16W 11D 19L in their last 46 games (1.28 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 19W 15D 12L in their last 46 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.50 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zaglebie Lubin won 0-3 on 28 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
2
Draws
3
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 50%, Slask Wroclaw 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 46% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Slask Wroclaw in 41%; Slask Wroclaw in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 46% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 46% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Zaglebie Lubin run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Slask Wroclaw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Slask Wroclaw 3-0 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.20 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.93 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slask Wroclaw landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.81 / defence 0.97 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 42% | Draw 29% | Slask Wroclaw 28%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 44%, Slask Wroclaw 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.28 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.