Wisla Plock 1-1 GKS Katowice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wisla Plock at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Plock vs GKS Katowice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees GKS Katowice travel to Orlen Stadion to take on Wisla Plock. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 September 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Plock have gone 5W 1D 2L from 8 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 0.62 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.62 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 1L across 5 games at Orlen Stadion this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Orlen Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
GKS Katowice — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for GKS Katowice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, GKS Katowice have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Wisla Plock carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Wisla Plock's 20% rate and GKS Katowice's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Trading Patterns
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
GKS Katowice in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 38% versus GKS Katowice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 25% | GKS Katowice 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.83 xG and GKS Katowice 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.920 / defence 0.836 | GKS Katowice attack 0.744 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.195. GKS Katowice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Wisla Plock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Wisla Plock games / 43 GKS Katowice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 63% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 14%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | GKS Katowice 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Wisla Plock (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wisla Plock as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 20% | GKS Katowice 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs GKS Katowice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 63% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 44% | xG Wisla Plock 1.83 / GKS Katowice 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.920 / def 0.836 | GKS Katowice attack 0.744 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.74
GKS Katowice xG
44%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs GKS Katowice kick off?
Wisla Plock vs GKS Katowice kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 26 September 2025 at Orlen Stadion.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs GKS Katowice?
Wisla Plock 1 - 1 GKS Katowice.
Where is Wisla Plock vs GKS Katowice being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs GKS Katowice part of?
Wisla Plock vs GKS Katowice is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs GKS Katowice?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 63% chance of winning, GKS Katowice a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs GKS Katowice?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Wisla Plock and GKS Katowice will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs GKS Katowice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and GKS Katowice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Plock and GKS Katowice in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 0.62 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. GKS Katowice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against GKS Katowice's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, GKS Katowice's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
63%
1.59
22%
4.46
14%
6.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.57
0.74
GKS Katowice xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
6.91
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
30%
3.33
2%
43.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 10.4 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs GKS Katowice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and GKS Katowice expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.74 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs GKS Katowice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 5W 1D 2L from 8 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GKS Katowice, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 5L across 8 games — 0.88 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for GKS Katowice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Plock by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GKS Katowice heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wisla Plock have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GKS Katowice's away record stands at 0W 0D 4L across 4 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GKS Katowice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; GKS Katowice are on 1.25 scored and 2.38 conceded.
Defensively: Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
GKS Katowice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and GKS Katowice in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while GKS Katowice have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or GKS Katowice away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.25 PPG; GKS Katowice away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or GKS Katowice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, GKS Katowice in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
GKS Katowice have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2026, when GKS Katowice won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
2
GKS Katowice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and GKS Katowice?
From 3 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 0, GKS Katowice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and GKS Katowice last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when GKS Katowice 5-0 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and GKS Katowice?
GKS Katowice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Wisla Plock 25% BTTS, GKS Katowice 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Wisla Plock) and 75% (GKS Katowice).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; GKS Katowice in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / GKS Katowice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play GKS Katowice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 25% of GKS Katowice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs GKS Katowice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 75% of GKS Katowice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and GKS Katowice tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, GKS Katowice in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wisla Plock and GKS Katowice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock and GKS Katowice finished level at 1-1 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.83 xG and GKS Katowice 0.74 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.92 / defence 0.84 against GKS Katowice attack 0.74 / defence 1.31, drawn from 8/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 63% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 14%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 25%, GKS Katowice 88%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
GKS Katowice's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.