Widzew Łódź 1-1 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 53%, yet in-form Wisla Plock provide a compelling counter-argument — this Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 4 as Widzew Łódź welcome Wisla Plock to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 August 2025 at 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź than their overall form suggests.
Wisla Plock — All Games: 3W 0D 0L from 3 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Wisla Plock's 3.00 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Widzew Łódź's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Widzew Łódź, 0 for Wisla Plock and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Widzew Łódź 33% | Wisla Plock 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 67% | Wisla Plock 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.58 xG and Wisla Plock 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.978 / defence 0.759 | Wisla Plock attack 0.976 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.248. Widzew Łódź's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Widzew Łódź games / 3 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 53% | Draw 25% | Wisla Plock 22%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Wisla Plock 4.55. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wisla Plock (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 20% | Wisla Plock 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Aug 2025, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 53% | Draw 25% | Wisla Plock 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.58 / Wisla Plock 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.978 / def 0.759 | Wisla Plock attack 0.976 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Wisla Plock xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 9 August 2025 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 53% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock?
Record (2 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 1 | Wisla Plock 0W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 0.98x the league average against Wisla Plock's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
53%
1.90
25%
3.96
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.50
0.92
Wisla Plock xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
5%
22.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 0.92 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 0L across 3 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Plock by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Widzew Łódź heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 2.00 scored and 0.33 conceded. Widzew Łódź's scoring rate against Wisla Plock's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games; Wisla Plock in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
Wisla Plock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Widzew Łódź or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
0
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock?
From 5 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Widzew Łódź 33% BTTS, Wisla Plock 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Widzew Łódź) and 33% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Wisla Plock in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Wisla Plock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 33% of Wisla Plock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 33% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 4, as Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.58 xG and Wisla Plock 0.92 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.98 / defence 0.76 against Wisla Plock attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 37/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 53% | Draw 25% | Wisla Plock 22%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 67%, Wisla Plock 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Widzew Łódź managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Wisla Plock managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.