Widzew Łódź 1-0 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Stal Mielec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź host Stal Mielec at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's home record at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Stal Mielec — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Widzew Łódź) versus 1.20 (Stal Mielec). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Widzew Łódź, 1 for Stal Mielec and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Stal Mielec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Widzew Łódź trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Stal Mielec trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 50% versus Stal Mielec 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 48% | Stal Mielec 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.40 xG and Stal Mielec 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.958 / defence 1.095 | Stal Mielec attack 0.794 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.098. Data: 44 Widzew Łódź games / 44 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 46% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 25%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Stal Mielec 4.00. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 40% | Stal Mielec 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 46% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.40 / Stal Mielec 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.958 / def 1.095 | Stal Mielec attack 0.794 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Stal Mielec xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Stal Mielec?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 0 Stal Mielec.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Stal Mielec part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 46% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Stal Mielec?
Record (2 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 0 | Stal Mielec 1W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Stal Mielec in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Stal Mielec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.96) and Stal Mielec's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.40
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.35
0.95
Stal Mielec xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
6%
16.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 0.95 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 44 games, going 14W 10D 20L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stal Mielec sit at 1.25 PPG from 44 outings (14W 13D 17L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.18 PPG, Stal Mielec on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 8W 3D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Stal Mielec have taken 0.90 points per game from 21 outings (5W 4D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.16 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 14W 10D 20L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 14W 13D 17L in their last 44 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Stal Mielec away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.29 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Stal Mielec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Stal Mielec in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 December 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Widzew Łódź won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Widzew Łódź
2
Draws
1
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Stal Mielec?
From 6 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 3, Stal Mielec have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2024, when Widzew Łódź 2-1 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Stal Mielec?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 48%, Stal Mielec 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Widzew Łódź) and 33% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stal Mielec in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Stal Mielec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 38% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 33% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Stal Mielec 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Stal Mielec 1-0 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.40 xG and Stal Mielec 0.95 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stal Mielec landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Stal Mielec attack 0.79 / defence 0.96, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 46% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 25%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 48%, Stal Mielec 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.18 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.