Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 13 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Widzew Łódź to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 7W 2D 1L at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Raków Częstochowa are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 0 for Widzew Łódź and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 42% versus Widzew Łódź 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 53% | Widzew Łódź 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.98 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.158 / defence 0.663 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.994 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.215. Raków Częstochowa's defence rating of 0.663 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Raków Częstochowa games / 45 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 64% | Draw 23% | Widzew Łódź 13%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.56 | Draw 4.35 | Widzew Łódź 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 20% | Widzew Łódź 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 64% | Draw 23% | Widzew Łódź 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 49% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.98 / Widzew Łódź 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.158 / def 0.663 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.994 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Widzew Łódź xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 64% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 13% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź?
Record (2 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 1W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.16x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
64%
1.57
23%
4.28
13%
7.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.78
0.80
Widzew Łódź xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
7.76
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
14%
7.27
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
2%
56.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.80 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 2.16 PPG on a 30W 7D 8L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 15W 10D 20L from 45 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Widzew Łódź.
Venue Form
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2.61 PPG from 23 outings (19W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.16 PPG overall — Raków Częstochowa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 6W 7D 10L from 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.16 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 30W 7D 8L in their last 45 games (2.16 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 15W 10D 20L in their last 45 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.61 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
0
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Widzew Łódź have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 30%, Widzew Łódź 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Raków Częstochowa) and 44% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 30%; Widzew Łódź in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 52% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 44% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 13, as Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.98 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.80 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.16 / defence 0.66 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.99 / defence 1.13, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 64% | Draw 23% | Widzew Łódź 13%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 53%, Widzew Łódź 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.