Warta Poznań 0-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Slask Wroclaw travel to Stadion Respect Energy to take on Warta Poznań. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Warta Poznań — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Warta Poznań have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Respect Energy — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Warta Poznań are significantly better at Stadion Respect Energy than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Slask Wroclaw — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Warta Poznań have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Slask Wroclaw have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2023, ended 3–1 with Warta Poznań winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Warta Poznań and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 37% versus Slask Wroclaw 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 30% | Slask Wroclaw 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.01 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.813 / defence 0.946 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.160 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.140. Data: 43 Warta Poznań games / 43 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 29% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 41%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Slask Wroclaw 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Warta Poznań dominate the H2H record, yet Slask Wroclaw are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Slask Wroclaw are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Warta Poznań 40% | Slask Wroclaw 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Respect Energy • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 29% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Warta Poznań 1.01 / Slask Wroclaw 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.813 / def 0.946 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.160 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Slask Wroclaw xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stadion Respect Energy.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw?
Warta Poznań 0 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Respect Energy.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 29% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (4 meetings): Warta Poznań 3W | Draws 1 | Slask Wroclaw 0W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Warta Poznań's attack rating (0.81) and Slask Wroclaw's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
29%
3.49
31%
3.25
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.26
1.25
Slask Wroclaw xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
8%
12.17
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.25 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 14W 12D 17L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 15W 12D 16L from 43 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Warta Poznań on 1.26 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (6W 9D 7L).
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 6W 6D 10L from 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.19 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 14W 12D 17L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 15W 12D 16L in their last 43 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Warta Poznań's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.23 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slask Wroclaw have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Warta Poznań
1
Draws
2
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 46%, Slask Wroclaw 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Warta Poznań and 32% for Slask Wroclaw.
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Warta Poznań have failed to score in 36% of games; Slask Wroclaw in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 50% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 32% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slask Wroclaw edge out Warta Poznań 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Warta Poznań 0-1 at Stadion Respect Energy, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.01 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.25 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Warta Poznań fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.81 / defence 0.95 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.16 / defence 0.85, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 29% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 41%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 30%, Slask Wroclaw 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.26 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.