Raków Częstochowa 3-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Raków Częstochowa face Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa host Radomiak Radom at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Raków Częstochowa have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Raków Częstochowa's 30% rate and Radomiak Radom's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 0 for Radomiak Radom and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (42 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (42 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 40% versus Radomiak Radom 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 50% | Radomiak Radom 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.59 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.141 / defence 0.748 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.987 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.137. Raków Częstochowa's defence rating of 0.748 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Raków Częstochowa games / 43 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 54% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 19%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Radomiak Radom 5.26. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 30% | Radomiak Radom 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 54% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.59 / Radomiak Radom 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.141 / def 0.748 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.987 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Radomiak Radom xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Raków Częstochowa 3 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 54% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom?
Record (4 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 2W | Draws 2 | Radomiak Radom 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Raków Częstochowa's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.75
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.43
0.84
Radomiak Radom xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
4%
25.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.84 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 28W 7D 7L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 15W 9D 18L from 42 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2.59 PPG from 22 outings (18W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.17 PPG overall — Raków Częstochowa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 9W 4D 9L from 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.05 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 28W 7D 7L in their last 42 games (2.17 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 15W 9D 18L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.59 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Raków Częstochowa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 32%, Radomiak Radom 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Raków Częstochowa) and 46% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 41% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 46% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Radomiak Radom 3-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.59 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.84 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.14 / defence 0.75 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 54% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 19%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 50%, Radomiak Radom 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (42 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (42 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.