Stal Mielec 0-0 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stal Mielec face Widzew Łódź.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stal Mielec host Widzew Łódź at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Stal Mielec have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Stal Mielec have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Widzew Łódź stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Stal Mielec) versus 1.60 (Widzew Łódź). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Stal Mielec, 2 for Widzew Łódź and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Stal Mielec 0–1 Widzew Łódź — a Widzew Łódź win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 41% versus Widzew Łódź 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 39% | Widzew Łódź 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.27 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.889 / defence 0.814 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.106 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.088. Data: built from Stal Mielec's last 61 games and Widzew Łódź's last 61.
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 41% | Draw 33% | Widzew Łódź 26%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.46 | Draw 3.02 | Widzew Łódź 3.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stal Mielec are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Stal Mielec 50% (last 10 home games) | Widzew Łódź 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 41% | Draw 33% | Widzew Łódź 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Stal Mielec 1.27 / Widzew Łódź 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.889 / def 0.814 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.106 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Widzew Łódź xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź FAQs
What time does Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź?
Stal Mielec 0 - 0 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 28) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 41% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stal Mielec's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Widzew Łódź's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stal Mielec's last 61 games and Widzew Łódź's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
41%
2.46
33%
3.02
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.25
0.98
Widzew Łódź xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
7%
13.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 0.98 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stal Mielec come into this having played 61 games, going 21W 17D 23L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.30 PPG from 61 outings (22W 13D 26L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.31 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stal Mielec's home form reads 13W 11D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 1.13 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.21 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Stal Mielec (Home) vs Widzew Łódź (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stal Mielec
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź Form FAQs
What form are Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 21W 17D 23L in their last 61 games (1.31 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 22W 13D 26L in their last 61 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.67 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 7 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Sep 2022, when Widzew Łódź won Stal Mielec 0-3 Widzew Łódź.
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
2
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stal Mielec have won 1, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 December 2024: Widzew Łódź 2-1 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stal Mielec see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 43%, Widzew Łódź 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Stal Mielec) and 43% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 57% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 43% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Stal Mielec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 28, as Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.27 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.98 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stal Mielec fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Widzew Łódź landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.89 / defence 0.81 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.11 / defence 0.99, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 41% | Draw 33% | Widzew Łódź 26%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 39%, Widzew Łódź 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.31 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.